Macroeconomics

It has been proven that the anti-crisis management program can determine the presence of three enterprise development systems that determine the choice of directions for anti-crisis management: "conditionally stable system," in which passive anti-crisis management is sufficient, "system with the manifestation of crisis phenomena," and "general crisis system," which requires the application of active anti-crisis measures. The goals of enterprise anti-crisis management vary depending on the type of financial system of the enterprise. Thus, anti-crisis management under the conditionally stable system aims to diagnose the indicators of enterprise activity for timely detection of manifestations of crisis phenomena. In the system expressing crisis phenomena, anti-crisis management aims to localize detected crises, overcome their negative impact, and restore pre-crisis indicators. The goal of anti-crisis management under the general crisis system is to manage the enterprise in conditions of prolonged crisis (stagnation). Each model of anti-crisis management has corresponding stages, the implementation of which is aimed at minimizing the negative impact of crisis phenomena on the enterprise's activity. The methods of anti-crisis management during the war have been systematized. The methods of anti-crisis management can be attributed to the entire set of methodological tools that include a complex of measures from pre-crisis diagnosis to methods of its elimination and overcoming. Based on the essential characteristics and the need to decide on applying anti-crisis methods at each stage of the enterprise's life cycle, their consideration from the perspective of diagnostic and crisis management methods is envisaged. Based on the application of a methodological approach to the formation of the system of forecasting anti-crisis management measures at the enterprise, the use of an algorithm for anti-crisis management to choose the direction of anti-crisis management at enterprises (passive or active) has been proposed. m It has been proven that the anti-crisis management program can determine the presence of three enterprise development systems that determine the choice of directions for anti-crisis management: "conditionally stable system," in which passive anti-crisis management is sufficient, "system with the manifestation of crisis phenomena," and "general crisis system," which requires the application of active anti-crisis measures. m Based on the application of a methodological approach to the formation of the system of forecasting anti-crisis management measures at the enterprise, the use of an algorithm for anti-crisis management to choose the direction of anti-crisis management at enterprises (passive or active) has been proposed

Psychiatric disorders are 1.5 to 2 times more prevalent in persons with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) than in the general population, with pooled prevalence estimates of 21% for clinical anxiety and 15% for depression. Rates are even higher when considering mental health symptoms, as nearly one-third of persons with IBD experience elevated anxiety symptoms and one-quarter experience depression symptoms. Rates of these symptoms were much higher during periods of disease activity, more common in women than men, and more common in Crohn’s disease than ulcerative colitis. There is robust evidence of the detrimental effects of comorbid depression and anxiety on the subsequent course of IBD based on longitudinal studies tracking outcomes over time. However, psychiatric disorders and IBD have bidirectional effects, with each affecting risk of the other. Elevated mental health concerns have been consistently associated with greater healthcare utilization and costs related to IBD. There i...

The aim of this research is to identify the factors that influence the technical efficiency of total production costs in apple farms, addressing some of the complexities posed by small-scale farming, within the regional and national context. The data of the study were collected from 150 randomly selected apple farms in Korca district, one of the major apples growing regions in Albania. The methodology approach consists of an econometric modelling of the factors that affect farm efficiency, capitalizing on the utility of the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), as a tool for gauging the spectrum of technical efficiency levels exhibited by apple farms. The findings reveal the substantial impact exerted by various factors such as farm size, irrigation, the deployment of capital stock, and the quantity of pesticides and fertilizers upon the technical efficiency of the total production costs. Farmers involved in apple production can improve the efficiency level by improving the irrigation techniques, and optimizing the quantity of fertilizers and capital stock. Also, apple producers in Albania may overcome yield instabilities by extending the area planted with apples.

The role of maintenance in industry is important to ensure optimal performance, reliability and longevity of equipment, machinery and infrastructure. This maintenance ensure the continuity of the production with minimal losses. The present paper present the types of maintenance and based on this it focused on developing a generalized software which can be applied mainly in mechanical production industry. The main positive aspects of the software are: it represent an open source through the option of adding equipment, it can deliver sheets with costs of preventive maintenance and lists of personnel. Maintenance activities play a significant role in supporting the production process, minimizing downtime, reducing costs and increasing overall operational efficiency.

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the growth curve and chemical composition of Cratylia (Cratylia argentea). The experiment was conducted with Cratylia planted in two-line spacings of 2 or 3 meters between rows and 0,5 m between plants. Cratylia plants were evaluated in a cycle of 126 days, with pruning events every 21 days, and a total of 6 assessments for each treatment. Parameters of bromatological composition (DM, CP, NDF, ADF) of plant edible fraction (EF) and productivity (total productivity and productivity of the EF in DM) were evaluated. The study was performed in a completely randomized design with 2 treatments (spacing) and 6 replications. The variations over days were evaluated using regression analysis, and the results were compared by Fisher test (p<0,05). The models that had the best fit for productivity was exponential and logistic, whereas, for the bromatological composition it was Gompertz and polynomial. The 3 m spacing had lower productivity and CP...

This paper presents an indicator system for evaluating Creative Tourism activities developed in four regions of Portugal through CREATOUR's pilot projects. It is a quantitative study based on primary and secondary sources. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was used to evaluate the efficiency of those projects as decision-making units (DMUs). Data analysis was performed using Excel and EMS software. The results show that the overall level of tourism efficiency is relatively high, and most pilots in each region have full efficiency. However, there is still room for improvement in some of them. Based on the results of this study, Portuguese creative tourism professionals need to pay more attention to social capital and job creation as the factors that have the greatest impact on improving efficiency. This is the first study to assess the effectiveness of a pilot project in creative tourism. Therefore, the results of this study can pave the way for implementing Creative Tourism projects in other parts of the world.

The present investigation obtained a system of mathematical models of operation of the steel ingot heating furnaces. For this, the systems analysis and synthesis methodology were used, from which the conceptual mathematical model was derived, as well as the interrelation of the furnace with the rest of the plant systems. The model was validated under static and dynamic operating conditions by purchasing the values of the variables measured in a Case Study facility with the values obtained by simulation. In addition, objective function optimization tools were applied by exploring a network of variables with a penalty for breach of constraints. The system responded satisfactorily to the disturbances inherent in the production process.

Introduction: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are a measure of childhood adversity and are associated with life-long morbidity. The impacts of ACEs on peripartum health including preeclampsia, a common and dangerous hypertensive disorder of pregnancy, remain unclear, however. Therefore, we aimed to determine ACE association with peripartum psychiatric health and prevalence of preeclampsia using a case-control design. Methods: Clinical data were aggregated and validated using a large, intergenerational knowledgebase developed at our institution. Depression symptoms were measured by standard clinical screeners: the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). ACEs were assessed via survey. Scores were compared between participants with (N = 32) and without (N = 46) prior preeclampsia. Results: Participants with ACE scores ≥4 had significantly greater odds of preeclampsia than those with scores ≤ 3 (adjusted odds ratio = 6.71, 95% confidence interval:1.13-40.00; p = 0.037). Subsequent speculative analyses revealed that increased odds of preeclampsia may be driven by increased childhood abuse and neglect dimensions of the ACE score. PHQ-9 scores (3.73 vs. 1.86, p = 0.03), EPDS scores (6.38 vs. 3.71, p = 0.01), and the incidence of depression (37.5% vs. 23.9%, p = 0.05) were significantly higher in participants with a history of preeclampsia versus controls. Conclusions: Childhood sets the stage for lifelong health. Our findings suggest that ACEs may be a risk factor for preeclampsia and depression, uniting the developmental origins of psychiatric and obstetric risk.

The products of the textile industry are very important in our lives, but the textile industry comes to the fore with its impact on the environment, excessive water consumption and waste production. In this study; Existing techniques based on less waste production in the textile industry were examined. With the textile finishing processes applied today, it is possible to give cotton fiber a structure similar to that of synthetic fibers. The most important finishing process that changes the physical and characteristic properties of cotton fiber is mercerization. Mercerization is a pre-treatment process applied to cotton fibers. The weak caustic, which is the output of the mercerizing processes, is discharged into the channel from the stabilization unit. The caustic recovery system designed by our company uses gradual evaporation and condensation principles to evaporate water from waste weak caustic and obtain strong recycled caustic. Recovered strong caustic is used repeatedly in mercerizing processes. In order to serve the fabric quality expectation, recycled caustic can be cleaned using hydrogen peroxide if desired. This study aims to recycle the caustic used in the mercerizing machine. A new process will be developed with a pre-causticizing system. By reducing caustic consumption with the package type caustic recovery unit to be designed, by eliminating the alkaline waste water problem in the mercerizing machine, by reducing the use of chemicals required for neutralization, pollution of nature will be largely prevented and energy savings will be achieved with the heat recovery unit to be designed. It has been determined that the recovery of caustic in textile facilities that use high amounts of caustic, such as the mercerization process, is both economically and environmentally beneficial.

Neither psychological nor neuroscientific investigations have been able to fully explain the paradox that placebo is designed to be inert in randomized controlled trials (RCTs), yet appears to be effective in evaluations of clinical interventions in all fields of medicine and alternative medicine. This article develops the Neuroplasticity Placebo Theory, which posits that neuroplasticity in fronto-limbic areas is the unifying factor in placebo response (seen in RCTs) and placebo effect (seen in clinical interventions) where it is not intended to be inert. Depression is the disorder that has the highest placebo response of any medical condition and has the greatest potential for understanding how placebos work: recent developments in understanding of the pathophysiology of depression suggest that fronto-limbic areas are sensitized in depression which is associated with a particularly strong placebo phenomenon. An innovative linkage is made between diverse areas of the psychology and the translational psychiatry literature to provide supportive evidence for the Neuroplasticity Placebo Theory. This is underpinned by neuro-radiological evidence of frontolimbic change in the placebo arm of antidepressant trials. If placebo stimulates neuroplasticity in fronto-limbic areas in conditions other than depression -and results in a partially active treatment in other areas of medicine -there are far reaching consequences for the day-to-day use of placebo in clinical practice, the future design of RCTs in all clinical conditions, and existing unwarranted assertions about the efficacy of antidepressant medications. If fronto-limbic neuroplasticity is the common denominator in designating placebo as a partially active treatment, the terms placebo effect and placebo response should be replaced by the single term "placebo treatment."

Historically, football 1 experts' predictions 2 were the only method of predicting the outcomes of championships. Former players, coaches, and nearly all fans have tried their hand at it. And most of these predictions were wrong, since subjective desires and prevailing public opinions always played a major role. In the meantime, however, reliable methods are being used to make scientific predictions. And the methods utilized are becoming more and more complex. 3

This study uses the fully modify ordinary least square (FMOLS) and the dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) to examineexport-led growth hypothesis in West African countries over the period 1980 to 2018. To achieve the objective of the study, panel data on Real Gross domestic product (RGDP), Exchange rate (REXR), net exports (NXPT, labor (LABR)and investment (INVS)) were collected for seventeen West African countries from database of the international financial statistics (IFS) and World Development Index (WDI). The data were analyzed using dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and fully modify ordinary least square (FMOLS). Findings from the study show that exports had significant impact on economic growth of the West African countries investigated in this study. Based on the findings, it is recommended, among other things, that the governments of West African countries should continue with export-led economic growth since there is strong empirical evidence in support of the export-l...

The article is based on empirical data from Australian Economy. It made an attempt to evaluate the success of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in controlling inflation by aggressively using cash rate. The main objective of the research is to find out the relationship of RBA's monetary policy with Taylor Rule; whether it follows the Taylor Rule mechanically or uses a different form (e.g. forward looking) or depends on other factors as well. Other models have been used for estimation and the results are analyzed subsequently. The evidences from the test results suggest the successful implementation of interest rate rule by the Reserve Bank to stabilize the inflationary pressure in terms of forward looking perspective. The monetary policy has evolved in the last few decades towards a new concept-inflation targeting. Many countries are already practicing inflation targeting as a tool for monetary policy. New Zealand was the first country that introduced inflation targeting in 1990. Till then it dispersed to other countries, i.e. Canada, UK, Sweden, Australia, Finland etc. The basic idea of inflation targeting is that, central bank adjusts the short term interest rate in such a way that ensures the projections of inflation and other variables satisfy the target criterion. Though the objective of inflation targeting is to stabilize the inflation around the target, it also takes into account the importance of output gap by allocating some weight onto it. The inflation targeting is based on the following characteristics: Numerical Inflation Target: Central bank usually specifies the target as a range rather than point estimation. Inflation-Forecasting-Targeting: The decision making process is stated as inflation-forecasting-targeting. Transparency & Accountability: The overall process must be transparent and central bank must be accountable for the consequences. Usually, in the inflation targeting regime, central bank makes public announcements about any changes in policy indicating both current inflation and expected future inflation states and steps needed to keep inflation in track. The desired level of target inflation actually achieved gradually over a period than in one instance. The stability is linked with the concept "Price Stability", and this price stability does not refer to zero inflation rather it is closer to a low level (i.e. 2%) annual rate of price changes. The target price level need not remain constant indefinitely, but could be allowed to drift upward in a predetermined way over time (Goodhart and Vinals, 1994; Svensson, 1996).

This paper is an attempt to bring into focus the standards required for research productivity of Nigerian academic librarians in terms of quantitative and qualitative research reporting. The paper started by looking at the definitions of the variables, and relying on literature raised some criteria that could be adopted as standards of research reporting for Nigerian academic librarians. Problems and prospects of setting standards for qualitative and quantitative research productivity were enunciated. The study concluded that predetermined standards can be seen as a starting point when defining reporting requirements for the Nigerian library and information research community; that applying these standards should not be restricted to the writing stage of a particular study, and that Journal editors should assist in the review procedure by providing reviewers with the standards and implementing them, thus laying out more clear expectations for quality and acceptable research reporting.

Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder characterized by recurrent seizures, necessitating lifelong medication management. One common side effect of these medications is sexual dysfunction. In this case report, a 37-year-old male epilepsy patient who was an office clerk by occupation presented at the outpatient department (OPD) of occupational therapy with the chief complaints of anxiety, depression, and sexual dysfunction primarily reporting of anorgasmia, which required longer foreplay to reach an effective erection leading to delayed ejaculation. The patient reported a nine-year history of complicated, partial, and generalized seizures for which he consulted the physician who prescribed him AED (antiepileptic drug) carbamazepine twice a day; however, the symptoms persisted, and the medication was changed to pregabalin. In addition to this, the patient was advised for occupational therapy intervention by the physician. In the occupational therapy department, the patient was assessed for various parameters that involved sexual functioning using the Changes in Sexual Functioning Questionnaire-Male (CSFQ-M), for anxiety using the Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) questionnaire, for depression using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), and quality of life (QOL) using the Quality of Life in Epilepsy Inventory -31 (QOLIE-31) questionnaire. As part of the intervention, occupational therapy was provided to the patient for four months, which mainly focused on three major areas: health promotion, remediation, and modification. Each of these methods was used at all levels of the intervention, as outlined by the EX-Permission, Limited Information, Specific Suggestions, and Intensive Therapy model (P-LI-SS-IT), which reflected positive results, as there was enhanced sexual functioning, reduced symptoms of depression, and anxiety, and improved quality of life. In conclusion, occupational therapists along with doctors and other practitioners should focus on addressing intimacy and sexuality within their practice for epilepsy patients demonstrating symptoms of sexual dysfunction, which will consequently impact an individual's QOL. Additionally, screening and monitoring of sexual dysfunction should be included during the routine assessment of patients with epilepsy.

Because of the Budget Control Act, budget enforcement procedures known as sequestration will commence January 2013 unless Congress and the Obama Administration act otherwise. The sequester requires cuts in discretionary spending in order to achieve $1.2 trillion in savings from 2013-2021. When compared to 2011 spending levels, this will lead to a cut of 8.8 percent (or $12.5 billion) of federally funded research and development (R&D) in 2013 with similar cuts in the following years.1 This cut to R&D expenditures will affect all government agencies, including the Department of Defense, the National Science Foundation the National Institutes of Health, the Department of Energy, and NASA.

This comprehensive review examines the pivotal role of agroforestry in promoting soil conservation and sustainable crop production. The introduction sets the foundation by elucidating the significance of agroforestry in addressing environmental challenges and ensuring food security. Subsequent sections delve into various agroforestry practices and techniques employed for soil conservation. The review also explores the influence of agroforestry on soil properties and microbial diversity, highlighting its positive impact on soil health. Additionally, the role of agroforestry in enhancing nutrient cycling and soil fertility is discussed, showcasing its potential to improve crop productivity. The paper culminates with case studies and insights that demonstrate the successful integration of agroforestry systems to support sustainable agriculture and land management practices.

The Remembrance Poppy is an iconic artificial flower that is prevalently worn in Commonwealth countries in the period preceding the Remembrance Day to commemorate their military personnel. The current version of the Remembrance Poppy is a multi-material design made of fossil plastic (i.e., light-density polyethylene, LDPE) and paper; this prevents its widespread recycling and ascribes the Poppy to the realm of single-use plastics. In this study, we quantify the environmental performance of the current and alternative designs of the Remembrance Poppy via a detailed Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), with the objective of supporting decisionmaking by the Royal British Legion Group, whose group charities provide the Remembrance Poppy across the UK. We consider two alternative designs: (i) one envisaging an increased recycled content (30% for LDPE and 50% for paper) compared to the current design and (ii) a novel, mono-material design fully made of paper. For the latter we consider three sub-scenarios with increasing recycled content from 50% to 100%, as well as two options considering or not recycling of the Poppy at the end of its life. The system boundaries are cradle-to-grave. The inventory data combines primary data collected from RBL group and a paper supplier, and secondary data from LCA databases. The environmental impacts are quantified via the Environmental Footprint 2.0 method. The LCA study indicates that the paper-based design is overall the environmentally preferable option, yielding environmental benefits (after normalization and weighting) ranging from 39% to 59% compared to the current design, according to the specific scenario. The recycled-content plastic-based design is also preferable but by a smaller amount (11%). The study highlights the importance of using increasing percentages of recycled content, as well as that of designing product that are recyclable at the end of their life, which are tenets of the Circular Economy paradigm. Plastics production has increased twentyfold since 1964 but only a small portion is recycled globally, with the majority being incinerated, landlled or, even worse, leaked to the oceans. The Ellen MacArthur Foundation estimates that about 8m tonnes of plastics leak into the ocean every year and that by 2050 there will be more plastics than sh (by weight). Plastic waste is a failure of design that generates signicant environmental impacts as well as economic burdens. This study shows how Life Cycle Assessment can be used to support the re-design a product (the iconic Remembrance Poppy) by reducing environmental impacts across its life-cycle. The study therefore supports SGD 12 Responsible Consumption and Production. It also links to SDG 13 (Climate action), SGD 14 (Life Below Water) and 15 (Life on Land) by reducing carbon emissions and waste generation that can pollute land and oceans.

International trade greatly affects the economic growth of a country. One indicator of economic growth is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study uses the scientific method approach and hypothesis testing. Types and sources of data used are quantitative data. International Trade has several positive impacts and negative impacts on the Indonesian state. International trade and economic growth are two things that cannot be separated because it is through free markets or international trade that a country's economic growth can increase.

Exchange rate is known as the one of the crucial element for the development of the economy, it is seen that volatility hassignificant influence on the international trade. In this paper analyzed that impact of inflation rate and money supply onthe volatility of exchange rate of India. We collected the monthly data to estimate the short and long run relationshipbetween these variables. For this purpose, we have applied theJohansen Cointegration, VECM, GCT and IRF for analysisthe response of different shocks on the variables. This paper is showing that high money supply and interest rate increasethe inflation rate, which leads to increase the volatility in exchange rate on India.

CADERNOS do DESENVOLVIMENTO, Rio de Janeiro, v. 12, n. 21, pp. 71-97, jul.-dez. 2017 | 71 3. Dados coletados por Carneiro (2002) mostram que diversos países "em desenvolvimento" ficaram excluídos dos primeiros anos da globalização financeira dos anos 1980, visto que os fluxos de portfólio, que passaram a ganhar protagonismo nas finanças globalizadas se dirigiram essencialmente para países desenvolvidos. 4. Contudo, foge do escopo deste artigo abordar a segunda perspectiva com profundidade. A década perdida: da restrição externa ao declínio do nacional-desenvolvimentismo brasileiro CADERNOS do DESENVOLVIMENTO | 73 irá abordar brevemente algumas reformas institucionais adotadas pelo Estado brasileiro ao longo da década de 1980, as quais devem ser analisadas em conjunto com as decisões de política econômica implementadas no mesmo período. Por fim, serão sintetizadas as principais considerações finais do artigo.

Postbiotics, which are bioactive substances derived from the metabolic processes of beneficial microbes, have received considerable attention in the field of microbiome science in recent years, presenting a promising path for exploration and innovation. This comprehensive analysis looks into the multidimensional terrain of postbiotic production, including an extensive examination of diverse postbiotic classes, revealing their sophisticated mechanisms of action and highlighting future applications that might significantly affect human health. The authors thoroughly investigate the various mechanisms that support postbiotic production, ranging from conventional fermentation procedures to cutting-edge enzyme conversion and synthetic biology approaches. The review, as an acknowledgment of the field's developing nature, not only highlights current achievements but also navigates through the problems inherent in postbiotic production. In order to successfully include postbiotics in therapeutic interventions and the production of functional food ingredients, emphasis is given to critical elements, including improving yields, bolstering stability, and assuring safety. The knowledge presented herein sheds light on the expanding field of postbiotics and their potential to revolutionize the development of novel therapeutics and functional food ingredients.

The growth of an economy is determined largely by the growth of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over time. However, GDP and some economic series are characterized by nonstationarity, structural breaks and outliers. Many attempts have been made to analyze these economic series assuming unit root process even in the presence of changes in the mean level without considering possible fractional integration. This paper aims at examining the structural breaks and nonstationarity in the GDP series of some selected African countries with a view to determining the influence of structural breaks on the level of stationarity of these series. These series are found to be nonstationary with some evidence of long memory. They were found to experience one or more breaks over the years and this may be due to instability in the government and economic policies in the selected African countries. The measure of relative efficiency shows that autoregressive fractional integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models is better than the corresponding autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for the series considered in this study.

The study examined the macroeconomic factors that influence performance of the manufacturing sector of Ghana using multivariate time series approach. It was found out t hat manufacturing production and real gross domestic product per capita were inversely related. In the long-run, macroeconomic variables such as private sector credit, labour and real exchange rate were unfavourable factors that weigh down the manufacturing sector while in the short-run, the past years consumer price index and real exchange rate were unfavourable to the manufacturing production. Finally, it is recommended that private sector credit to the manufacturing sector should be improved, training of labour force should be skilled and technical oriented and policies to stabilise the real exchange rate should be put in place to halt the down trending in manufacturing production.

This paper examined the macroeconomic determinants of inflation in Ghana using a cointegration approach. The main purpose of the paper is to investigate whether population growth, foreign direct investment, foreign aid, agricultural and service's output have a significance influence on the inflationary situations experienced in Ghana over the study period. The method of analysis was the cointegration analysis. The stationarity properties of all the variables of interest were checked and established. All the variables under consideration were found to be integrated of order one, that is, I (1). Johansen cointegration approach showed that there is both long and short run relationship among the variables; therefore, the vector error correction model was estimated. The study identified population growth, foreign direct investment, foreign aid, and service's output as major long run determinants of inflation in Ghana.

The study is on achieving higher GDP growth in Ghana: which sector is to lead. The main objective of this paper was to examine the contributions of the agricultural, service and industrial sectors to economic growth in Ghana. Time series data from 1966 to 2011 on all the variables of interest was obtained from the World Development Indicators 2012 series. The Ordinary Least Squares estimation technique was used for the analysis. The results showed that a 1% increase in the growth of the agricultural sector will cause GDP growth to increase by 0.452849%. Also, a 1% increase in the growth of the services sector will lead to 0.376308% increase in GDP growth. Finally, 1% increase in the growth of the industrial sector will bring 0.1827% increase in GDP growth. All the explanatory variables are statistically significant at the 5% level of significance. It is concluded that the agriculture sector contributed most to the overall growth. It is recommended that for Ghana to achieve higher GD...

Este libro explica teóricamente por qué falló la hipótesis del mercado eficiente (HME), para la cual los precios son determinados por los fundamentos de la economía y, por lo tanto, en este sentido, no se preveía una burbuja hipotecaria que generara una crisis económica como la actual. La hipótesis de la liquidez de Keynes, y el principio de la incertidumbre, es el primer camino para tratar de explicar qué pasó; el segundo, es la hipótesis de la fragilidad financiera de H. Minsky.

The intermediation provided by banks depends on the efficiency of the bank. Commercial banks in South Sudan have continued to experience poor performance. This has been a significant source of concern for the South Sudan's financial sector over the years. Studies on financial performance and macroeconomic factors have largely not been based on South Sudan Banks. The general objective of the study was to establish the effect of selected macro-economic variables on financial performance of commercial banks in South Sudan. The study adopted explanatory research design. A census of 29 commercial banks listed in South Sudan that were in operation from 2012 to 2020 was targeted. The audited financial statements of the listed commercial banks served as the source of secondary panel data. Data collection was by use of a document review guide. Data analysis for the study was by use of regression model and correlation. The study was based on Vector autoregressive (VAR) model to assess relationship between macro-economic variables and financial performance of commercial banks. From the findings of the study, it was established that interest rate has no significant effect on financial performance of commercial banks in South Sudan; Gross Domestic Product has no significant effect on financial performance of commercial banks in South Sudan; inflation rate has no significant effect on financial performance of commercial banks in South Sudan and exchange rate has no significant effect on financial performance of commercial banks in South Sudan. Macroeconomic variables such as interest rate Gross domestic product, inflation rate and exchange rate. The study suggested that commercial banks' management committees continuously monitor inflation rates in order for them to adjust their loan products and services in line with the inflation rate; commercial banks should design dynamic interest rate policies that would lead to growth by attracting many customers; and commercial banks should ensure that the business environment is favorable in order to encourage investment in them since they have the ability to offer a variety of financial services.

Physical activity occupies an important place in maintaining and improving the health and well-being of individuals and the population, which is why physical activity stands out as an important lifestyle. The restrictive measures introduced due to the coronavirus pandemic have led to a significant drop in the level of physical activity, as well as an increase in anxiety and depression. The aim of this research was to determine whether there is a connection between physical activity, mental health and quality of life of women who have experienced COVID-19. The sample of respondents consisted of women between the ages of 20 and 60 (n=193). The IPAQ questionnaire (longer version) was used to assess physical activity. Selfassessment of mental health was determined by the longer version of the DASS questionnaire. Quality of life was assessed by the World Health Organization-WHOQOL questionnaire. Descriptive statistics parameters were calculated, and canonical correlation analysis was use...

In an increasingly resource-constrained era, using waste and by-products from grain processing has a wide appeal. This is due to the nutritive value and economic aspects of this process and due to its compatibility with the trend towards more sustainable food systems. Following the fundamentals of circular economy, a current need is the effective utilization of grain waste and by-products for conversion into value-added products in the food industry. The aim of this study is twofold: (1) using bibliometrics and the literature found in various databases, we aim to understand the progress of valorizing grain waste and by-products in human nutrition. The literature within various databases, namely, Google Scholar, Web of Science, and Elsevier Scopus, has been evaluated for its merits and values. (2) We aim to explore knowledge-based strategies by reviewing the literature concerning the possible use of grain waste and by-products for the food processing industry, reducing the burden on ...

We examine the conditions under which a central bank raises welfare by revealing its ex-pected future interest rate in a simple two-period model with heterogeneous information. The release of this information fully aligns central bank and private sector expectations about future shocks, therefore about future ination and interest rates, which determine the current long-term interest rate. Transparency, therefore, tends to raise welfare because it reduces the impact of expectation errors on ination volatility. Yet, it may be desirable for the central bank not to release the expected interest rate. This possibility arises because of how the private sector inter-prets the latest interest rate decision. The less msitaken it is, the more transparency is desirable. Conditions that favor the case for transparency are a high degree of precision of central bank relative to private sector information, reasonably good early information and a high elasticity of current to expected ination.

An experiment was conducted at Zonal Agricultural and Horticultural Research Station, Babbur Farm, Hiriyur during the year 2021-2022. Agroforestry is becoming more significant in light of the increased need for wood and the accessibility of farmland. The main area for agroforestry consideration is the creation of a suitable tree crop spacing combination and productivity evaluation. The present field experiment was conducted to assess growth and yield performance of horse gram under three spacing i.e., 4 m × 1 m, 4 m × 2 m, and 4 m × 3 m of Melia dubia and with sole crops as horsegram. The experiment consists of four treatments with five replications in RCBD design treatments T1-horse gram in 4 m × 1 m, T2-horse gram in 4 m × 2 m, T3-horse gram in 4 m × 3 m and T4-sole horse gram. Horse gram growth parameters were recorded at 30 DAS, 60 DAS and at harvest and yield parameters were estimated. Results revealed that there was a significant difference between horse gram growth parameters i.e., plant height, number of branches and dry matter production at 30 DAS, 60 DAS and at harvest. The horse gram yield parameters were ranked as T4 > T3 > T2 > T1 with significant difference among T1, T2, T3 and T4. The highest yield of horse gram was obtained in T4 (1220.02 Kg/ha) followed by T3 (931.4 Kg/ha), T2 (667 Kg/ha) and T1 (529 Kg/ha). The horse gram growth and yield increases with increasing spacing of Melia dubia and relatively higher in sole horse gram plot. The shade impact that trees have on crops may be the reason of the decline in yield with decreasing spacing. However, the long term benefit of trees wood accumulation fetched more economic returns in the future.

The main goal of this work is to analyze the potential implications of the balance-of-payments constraint theory for business cycles. Although this theory is oriented towards long-run growth, it implicitly predicts the existence of cycles in any open economy. As we try to show, according to this theory, business cycles are generated by two factors: capital flows and trade shocks. Yet the standard model can overestimate cycles due to its specification of trade equations. In the paper we first develop the implications of the balance-of-payments constraint theory with regard to business cycles, then build an augmented model that can correct the potential over-estimation of cycles: Finally we use that model to analyze the sources of business cycles in Portugal and Spain and to show that the standard model does indeed overestimate cycles, at least in these two cases.

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by , generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre ( ) and , to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While sustainability may be lacking in individual cases, fiscal policy was overall sustainable both for the EU15 panel set, and within some sub-periods.

This study addresses the redesign of a productivity award in the value chain, aiming to provide a comprehensive strategic framework for organizations dedicated to excellence. A notable challenge is identi ed in the absence of industry-speci c models tailored to sector characteristics. In response, the ABCs of Productivity Award is introduced to catalyze sustainable continual improvement in value chains. The research utilizes methodological synthesis, incorporating a comprehensive case analysis across three structured phases. The rst phase explores key success factors and conducts a methodical comparative assessment of the current productivity evaluation system against international and national models. This phase lays the foundational bedrock for enhancements in the next phase, involving different focus group deliberations. Informed by insights from the investigative phase, these sessions contribute to preliminary adjustments, forming a blueprint for transformative development. The third phase encompasses a diligent tripartite validation process, involving qualitative, quantitative, and pilot study components. The culmination reveals the scienti c meticulous construction of the ABCs of Productivity Award, could be benchmarked in every single industry to create sustainable value while considering various issues that involve different stakeholders. This methodology has been applied to develop national award of Iran' mining industry and the potential de cits are adjusted in this way and make it e cacious for benchmarking.

El presente documento analiza la sostenibilidad de la deuda publica de Guatemala bajo escenarios de incertidumbre. Para el efecto se emplean dos metodos de estimacion basados en Mendoza y Oviedo (2004) y Garcia y Rigobon (2004). El metodo MendozaOviedo permite hacer un analisis de sostenibilidad de la deuda suponiendo que los ingresos futuros del gobierno son inciertos, mientras que el nivel de gasto se mantiene mas o menos constante. Este metodo proporciona tanto el limite natural de la deuda, como la probabilidad de alcanzar dicho limite en el mediano plazo. Por su parte Garcia y Rigobon estudian la sostenibilidad de la deuda desde una perspectiva del manejo de riesgo. En este caso, todas las variables que explican la acumulacion de la deuda publica se consideran inciertas. Al tomar en cuenta estos aspectos la nocion de la sostenibilidad de la deuda se expande a estudiar las propiedades estocasticas de la dinamica de la deuda.

Structural change is defined as the shift of resources from primary sectors to those boasting high value-added. If productivity elevates owing to structural change, then economic growth becomes more vigorous and steadier. This study's goal is to examine structural change and the sources of labor productivity evolution in selected African countries from 1990 to 2018. Therefore, the Shift-Share Analysis method was employed in the study. The results indicated that the transition of competent labor to industries with higher productivity coupled with investments in fundamentals that promote physical and human capital, innovative practices, and infrastructure, are vital for increasing productivity. For policymakers, both internal productivity improveme nts and structural transformation need to coexist harmoniously.

The nexus between oil prices and inflation has piqued the curiosity of policymakers, business leaders, and academics alike since oil price fluctuations have an impact on the inflation rates and accordingly on the entire economy. In this paper, we tried to investigate the relationship between oil prices and inflation in Turkey during the period from 1995 to 2022, utilizing the Bounds Cointegration test. The dependent variable is Inflation, consumer prices (annual %). The independent variables are Gross national expenditure (% of GDP), Broad money growth (annual %), and Oil prices -Crude oil prices. The results of this test confirm the long-run cointegration between inflation and oil prices during the studied interval. It's imperative for policymakers to contemplate amplifying economic tenacity by expanding the avenues of national revenue and targeting selfsufficiency in energy or a diverse energy landscape.

J. suggests that central banks shift short-term lending rates in the same direction as the difference between actual and potential gross domestic product and the deviations between actual and targeted inflation rates. This rule, called the Taylor Rule, ensures that the monetary policies carried out by central banks are predictable. Thus, economic units are protected from the cost of missing information. Complex rules set forth by monetary authorities as an optimal policy rule can be limited because they cannot be followed by economic agents. The Taylor Rule, which is a simple rule, is easier to understand and apply. The exchange rate is not included in the original Taylor Rule (1993). In this study, the Taylor Rule has been expanded to include the exchange rate. Therefore, the Taylor rule that applies to the validity of some developed countries to Turkey is investigated using variable data sets that make up the extended Taylor Rule.

On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration announced long-debated “reciprocal” tariffs on the U.S.’s largest trading partners, aiming to usher America into a new “golden age” of prosperity. However, this decision appears to completely ignore the repercussions for the rest of the world, as if they are to blame exclusively for America’s own domestic problems ...

This dissertation consists of three essays on the impact of natural resources on economic and fiscal performance. The first chapter investigates the resource impact on economic growth using a non-parametric minimum-distance matching method. Countries are matched according to their observable characteristics, and the relative growth rates of GDP of each matched pair are computed. In this way, it is possible to analyze the impact of the resources on relative growth rates, rather than on absolute growth rates as has been done in previous studies. Assuming a correlation between observables and unobservables, the matching based on observables may control for unobservables as well. If this assumption is satisfied, matching allows us to control for more variables and to single out the direct effect of the resource abundance variable.

We analyse the ‘indirect effects’ of Brexit on African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries’ exports that use the UK as a platform to access the EU market and vice versa. First, we use the EORA26 multi-region input–output database for 186 countries and 26 sectors to characterize the ACP domestic content embedded in bilateral trade between the UK and the EU. Second, we apply the GTAP-VA module to carry out a simulation of how the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement will impinge on 121 countries and 65 products. The results suggest that while ‘indirect effects’ on ACP countries’ exports may exist, their economic magnitude is small in aggregate because ACP countries supply only small amounts of inputs used in UK–EU bilateral trade. Our simulations also show that these effects may be offset by the likely increase in ACP domestic content in exports because of TCA friction, mainly towards the UK.

Background. Children and adolescents who have been exposed to a major natural disaster are more likely to suffer from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. However, only a few studies have examined comorbidity patterns at the symptom level. Furthermore, researchers should validate their findings using multiple samples to address the psychological reproducibility challenge. Methods. The Child PTSD Symptom Scale (CPSS) and Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale for Children (CES-DC) were administered to two postearthquake child and adolescent samples (Wenchuan earthquake, N = 1506 ; Ya’an earthquake, N = 720 ). Each sample was followed up twice. Comorbidity patterns were characterized by cross-lagged panel network analysis (CLPN), and communities were determined by bootstrap exploratory graphical analysis (bootEGA). Results. Except for having difficulty remembering important aspects of the trauma, the remaining dysphoria symptoms could be considered bridge ...

La inflación es uno de los fenómenos económicos más impopulares en la vida moderna para la opinión pública, demostrado por las encuestas y por los resultados electorales adversos a los gobiernos, que los electores furiosos y disgustados responsabilizaban por el crecimiento constante de los precios, en muchos países. El rechazo a la inflación no sólo tiene razones económicas, en su significado estrecho, sino también por el sentido de inseguridad y de indefensión que sufren los individuos, especialmente los de edad mayor, cuando estos procesos se convierten en parte de su vida diaria, minando no sólo sus ingresos –fijos para los jubilados y rentistas- sino también la cohesión social frente al Estado. Por otro lado, los inversionistas no se mueven a gusto en un ambiente inflacionario no esperado, y que no pueden incorporar en sus previsiones y en sus precios, causando así una ineficiente asignación de los recursos que retarda el crecimiento.

Residential consumers can efficiently engage in demand response programs with the help of home energy management systems (HEMSs). The best scheduling of gas, oil, coal, and uranium appliances has yet to be considered by traditional HEMSs, which exclusively control domestic electric devices to lower the cost of electricity usage. The associated demand response (DR) for smart homes is then adjusted to lessen the difference between predicted and actual demand after comparing the actual price to this forecast. Data acquired by Nordpool and publicly available energy information have been used to test the proposed strategy about price demand forecast and DR management. The function is to reduce energy costs for the home and the dissatisfaction brought on by moving, cutting, and replacing loads by changing prices over time. Case studies with accurate data show that the suggested strategy can return on investment bills by up to 85% while maintaining their satisfaction.