International Economics

In this paper we explore the trade effects of bilateral real exchange rate changes between the 50 US states and China over the period of 2005-2012. The empirical results based on state-level trade flows and state-level relative prices suggest that the long-run real exchange rates elasticity of US exports to China is in the range of [-3.77, -2.85] and that of Chinese exports to the US is in the range of [-0.23, -3.34]. We also find that state-level differences in human capital and financial development are significant determinants of their export performances with respect to China. Based on the most optimistic scenario, our results suggest that the RMB needs to further appreciate against the dollar by at least 1.8 percent a year for 16 years for the US to achieve balanced trade with China.

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in Cambridge Journal of Economics following peer review. The version of record Mustafa Caglayan, Firat Demir, Exchange rate movements, export sophistication and direction of trade: the development channel and North-South trade flows, Cambridge

Abstract: Export led growth is the model of economic development that Vietnam has been following. While there are a great number of studies on the determinants of aggregate export of Vietnam, there are few that analyze the impacts of different factors on the export of ...

Numerous papers have examined the effect of national income on FDI using cross-country data, including in developing countries. However, few papers focus on one specific region, particularly in ASEAN developing countries. This study analyzes the effect of GDP growth on FDI in ASEAN-5 countries from 2004 to 2019. Panel data regression with fixed effect estimation was performed to document the relationship between GDP growth and FDI. Using some macroeconomic control variables, the findings demonstrated that GDP growth has a positive and significant impact on the FDI. Additionally, the effects of the currency rate, trade openness, and inflation on FDI are positive. Therefore, macroeconomic performances such as GDP growth, exchange rate, trade openness, and inflation are the main factors attracting FDI in ASEAN-5 countries.

This study examined interest rate variations among banks in Ghana. The objective of the study was to estimate the key driving factor(s) that influences interest rate spreads in Ghana. It was also the aim of this study to examine the impact of the 2008/2009 financial crises on this relationship, to know whether ownership (foreign and local banks) differences in this relationship is significant and to know whether age of the bank determines their interest rate spread. The study used an unbalanced panel of all 28 banks from 2000 to 2011. The fixed effect estimation technique was employed throughout the analysis of data. The study found that, for bank specific variables, age of a bank was significant and a positive determinant of net interest margin while ownership structure had a significant negative impact on net interest margin. This suggests that banks that have been in operations in the country for a long time seem to enjoy higher interest margins while generally most of the foreig...

This study uses the fully modify ordinary least square (FMOLS) and the dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) to examineexport-led growth hypothesis in West African countries over the period 1980 to 2018. To achieve the objective of the study, panel data on Real Gross domestic product (RGDP), Exchange rate (REXR), net exports (NXPT, labor (LABR)and investment (INVS)) were collected for seventeen West African countries from database of the international financial statistics (IFS) and World Development Index (WDI). The data were analyzed using dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and fully modify ordinary least square (FMOLS). Findings from the study show that exports had significant impact on economic growth of the West African countries investigated in this study. Based on the findings, it is recommended, among other things, that the governments of West African countries should continue with export-led economic growth since there is strong empirical evidence in support of the export-l...

In the article, the effects of oil price changes on inflation and the exchange rate in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and UAE, as well as in Azerbaijan, were econometrically assessed. The comparison between Azerbaijan and these Arab countries was made because oil revenues play an important role in the economy of these countries, but its effects are different. Saudi Arabian riyal, Iraqi dinar, Kuwaiti dinar, and UAE dirham depend on oil prices in the world market for the long run. In the short run, there is no such dependence. It is confirmed that Azerbaijani manat is dependent on oil revenues for the long run. Addiction is not felt in the short run. In the oil-rich Arab countries and Azerbaijan, the non-dependence of the national currency on the world market on oil prices is due to the state regulation of the national currency's exchange rate in these countries. In none of these countries is the national currency liberal, and its exchange rate is not determined by supply and demand in the market.

La réflexion économique en Grèce ancienne a longtemps été considérée comme inexistante ou relevant du simple sens commun. Pour les uns, il ne saurait y avoir de véritable savoir économique que sous la forme d’une science, soit seulement à partir du XVIIIe siècle avec la naissance de l’économie politique. Pour les autres, les Grecs étaient principalement intéressés à la vie politique et méprisaient les affaires économiques, qu’ils remettaient aux esclaves et aux femmes. Les textes rassemblés dans ce volume remettent en question ces deux présupposés, et témoignent de la vitalité de la réflexion économique en Grèce ancienne. À la lecture des passages que Platon, Aristote, Xénophon, Philodème de Gadara et quelques autres ont consacré à ce sujet, on découvrira une autre idée de l’économie que la nôtre, en tant que pratique et en tant que connaissance. Les traductions des textes présentés ont été revues et modifiées dans la plupart des cas, à la fois pour éviter les modernisations bien intentionnées mais souvent trompeuses, pour donner à percevoir l’homogénéité des questions débattues chez des auteurs distincts recourant au même vocabulaire, et pour être, d’abord et avant tout, au plus près possible des textes tout en tâchant de trouver la bonne distance qui nous sépare d’eux.

Countries are increasingly turning to non-tariff barriers that are hard to measure and often illegal under WTO rules. What are the impacts of these policies, and what do they reveal about market power in international trade? We study a comprehensive system of discretionary import licenses imposed by Argentina, where we observe the universe of transaction-level requests and approval decisions between 2013 and 2015. Approvals varied across firms and products in a manner consistent with the government's trade and investment objectives, and over time to safeguard the current account. Interacting these sources of variation to construct an instrument, we estimate that stricter restrictions increased the prices paid by importers, a result that runs counter to competitive price-setting behavior. Informed by a model and a classifier-Lasso, the price and quantity responses identify-for each combination of importer, narrow product, and originwhich side (importer or exporter) holds market power. We find that larger importers are more likely to hold market power, and those trading with richer countries are less likely to. The marketpower distribution strongly shapes the effects of quantitative restrictions and the magnitude of optimal tariffs. Import prices rose by 4% as a result of Argentina's import restrictions, but would have risen by 13% (fallen by 8%) had all foreign firms (Argentinian firms) held market power.

International trade greatly affects the economic growth of a country. One indicator of economic growth is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This study uses the scientific method approach and hypothesis testing. Types and sources of data used are quantitative data. International Trade has several positive impacts and negative impacts on the Indonesian state. International trade and economic growth are two things that cannot be separated because it is through free markets or international trade that a country's economic growth can increase.

This paper analyses the reasons why Ecuador changed its monetary policy by substituting the national currency Sucre by US Dollar; the benefits and costs of dollarization in Ecuador; examines economic performance by using data collected by the Central Bank and International database available, the period from 1996 to 2007 have been chosen for this study; and uses variables like GDP, Foreign Direct Investment, Debt, Taxes and Inflation.

This paper tries to analyze the impacts of intermediate goods trade on production, consumption, investment, net exports, employment, labor wage and capital rent of Iran in its bilateral trade relations with China. This analysis has been done by modeling, solving and calibrating an international real business cycles (IRBC) model in period 1980-2009. The results show that when elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods is low, increasing the share of Iran’s imported intermediate goods from China increases volatility of Iran’s macroeconomic variables. The value of an increase in volatility of Iran’s macroeconomic variables depends on elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods, when the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported intermediate goods is low, an increase in the share of Iran’s imported intermediate goods from China leads to a further increase in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. These r...

We show that cost asymmetry between the domestic and foreign firms is not necessary for the occurrence of insufficient entry in the domestic country. This result provides a rationale for pro-competitive domestic policies even in the absence of cost asymmetries among the domestic and foreign firms. However, if significant demand comes from foreign countries, and the market structures are determined endogenously in the domestic and foreign countries, domestic-entry in an open economy might not be insufficient, implying that foreign competition might not reduce the importance of anti-competitive domestic policies.

This paper employs an endogenous merger formation approach in a two-country oligopoly model of trade to examine the international linkages between the nature of mergers and tariff levels. Firms sell differentiated products and compete in a Bertrand fashion in product markets. Two effects play key roles in determining equilibrium market structure: the tariff saving effect and the protection gain effect. The balance between these two effects implies that, when foreign country practices free trade, low home tariffs yield international mergers irrespective of the substitutability levels. By contrast, when foreign tariffs are sufficiently high and products are close substitutes, national mergers obtain in the equilibrium. Unlike this asymmetric result of unilateral trade liberalization, we find that when bilateral tariffs are sufficiently low, international mergers arise. These results fit well with the fact that global trade liberalization has been accompanied by an increase in internat...

Temel makroekonomik göstergelerdeki bazı bozukluklar ile ön plana çıkan ve çeşitli derecelendirme kuruluşlarının bazı dönemlerde riskli ülkeler arasında gösterdiği kırılgan ekonomilerde dış borçların sürdürülebilirliği önemli bir tartışma konusudur. Gelişmekte olan bazı ülkelerde cari açığın GSYİH'ye oranının yüksek olması, büyüme oranındaki performans düşüklüğü, gelecek dönemlere ilişkin dış finansman ihtiyacının artması, ülkelerin ekonomi dışı alanlarda (iç siyasi ve toplumsal olaylar) potansiyel risklerin oluşması gibi etmenler önemli sorunlar olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Söz konusu bazı olumsuz koşulların yaşandığı Türkiye, Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya ve Güney Afrika 2013 yılında Morgan Stanley tarafından kırılgan beşli ülkeler (eski kırılgan beşli ülkeler) olarak adlandırılmıştır. Benzer sebeplerle 2017 yılında Standard & Poor's tarafından yeni kırılgan beşli (Türkiye, Arjantin, Katar, Mısır ve Pakistan) tanımlaması ortaya konmuştur. Adı geçen ülkelerde, dış finansman ihtiyacının yüksek olması, yüksek enflasyon, yüksek cari açık gibi sorunların mevcut olması dış borçların sürdürülebilir olup olmadığını önemli hale getirmektedir. Bu amaçla, adı geçen ülke ekonomilerinde dış borçların sürdürülebilirlik düzeyini belirleyen, 1994-2019 dönemi dış borç servislerinin ihracat gelirleri içerisindeki payı (LDBİ) ve brüt dış borç stokunun GSMH içerisindeki payı (LBDBMG) değişkenleri kullanılmaktadır. Ampirik yöntem olarak Reese ve Westerlund (2016) tarafından geliştirilen PANICCA panel birim kök testi ve yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan Panel Fourier LM (Nazlıoğlu -Karul, 2017) birim kök testi tercih edilmektedir. LDBİ değişkenine göre her iki birim kök testi bulgularıda ilgili ülke gruplarında dış borçların sürdürülebilir olmadığını ortaya koymuştur. LBDBMG değişkenine göre ise yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi bulguları eski kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde dış borçların sürdürülebilir olduğunu; yeni kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde ise sürüdürülebilir olmadığını göstermiştir. Bu sonuç, yeni kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde politika yapıcıların dış boç konusunda çok ihtiyatlı olması gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Dış borçların sürdürülebilirliğinin sağlanması için ithal girdi bağımlılığının azaltılması, döviz rezervini artırıcı faaliyetlere önem verilmesi gibi politikalara öncelik verilmesi gerekmektedir.

Temel makroekonomik göstergelerdeki bazı bozukluklar ile ön plana çıkan ve çeşitli derecelendirme kuruluşlarının bazı dönemlerde riskli ülkeler arasında gösterdiği kırılgan ekonomilerde dış borçların sürdürülebilirliği önemli bir tartışma konusudur. Gelişmekte olan bazı ülkelerde cari açığın GSYİH'ye oranının yüksek olması, büyüme oranındaki performans düşüklüğü, gelecek dönemlere ilişkin dış finansman ihtiyacının artması, ülkelerin ekonomi dışı alanlarda (iç siyasi ve toplumsal olaylar) potansiyel risklerin oluşması gibi etmenler önemli sorunlar olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Söz konusu bazı olumsuz koşulların yaşandığı Türkiye, Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya ve Güney Afrika 2013 yılında Morgan Stanley tarafından kırılgan beşli ülkeler (eski kırılgan beşli ülkeler) olarak adlandırılmıştır. Benzer sebeplerle 2017 yılında Standard & Poor's tarafından yeni kırılgan beşli (Türkiye, Arjantin, Katar, Mısır ve Pakistan) tanımlaması ortaya konmuştur. Adı geçen ülkelerde, dış finansman ihtiyacının yüksek olması, yüksek enflasyon, yüksek cari açık gibi sorunların mevcut olması dış borçların sürdürülebilir olup olmadığını önemli hale getirmektedir. Bu amaçla, adı geçen ülke ekonomilerinde dış borçların sürdürülebilirlik düzeyini belirleyen, 1994-2019 dönemi dış borç servislerinin ihracat gelirleri içerisindeki payı (LDBİ) ve brüt dış borç stokunun GSMH içerisindeki payı (LBDBMG) değişkenleri kullanılmaktadır. Ampirik yöntem olarak Reese ve Westerlund (2016) tarafından geliştirilen PANICCA panel birim kök testi ve yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan Panel Fourier LM (Nazlıoğlu -Karul, 2017) birim kök testi tercih edilmektedir. LDBİ değişkenine göre her iki birim kök testi bulgularıda ilgili ülke gruplarında dış borçların sürdürülebilir olmadığını ortaya koymuştur. LBDBMG değişkenine göre ise yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi bulguları eski kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde dış borçların sürdürülebilir olduğunu; yeni kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde ise sürüdürülebilir olmadığını göstermiştir. Bu sonuç, yeni kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde politika yapıcıların dış boç konusunda çok ihtiyatlı olması gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Dış borçların sürdürülebilirliğinin sağlanması için ithal girdi bağımlılığının azaltılması, döviz rezervini artırıcı faaliyetlere önem verilmesi gibi politikalara öncelik verilmesi gerekmektedir.

The study identified all Nigeria’s products of trade, with a view to ascertaining and computing volumes of net trade and corresponding latent gains and or losses sustained in pursuit of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) trade policy objectives. Data were soured from United Nations Commodity Trade (UNComtrade), via Trade Analysis and Information System Window. The inherent most-favored-nations tariffs were identified and applied in computation of the latent revenue gains and losses sustained in pursuit of the sub-regional duty free trade. The net trade (Exports-Imports) and latent revenue gains or losses per product for the years under review were evaluated to ascertain the level to which the country contributes through each traded product in sustaining the regional trade liberalization policy as gauged or inferred. A country being net importer or net exporter of any product is an indication of latent gains or losses in tariff revenue, respectively. The study conclud...

The study identified all Nigeria's products of trade, with a view to ascertaining and computing volumes of net trade and corresponding latent gains and or losses sustained in pursuit of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) trade policy objectives. Data were soured from United Nations Commodity Trade (UNComtrade), via Trade Analysis and Information System Window. The inherent most-favored-nations tariffs were identified and applied in computation of the latent revenue gains and losses sustained in pursuit of the sub-regional duty free trade. The net trade (Exports-Imports) and latent revenue gains or losses per product for the years under review were evaluated to ascertain the level to which the country contributes through each traded product in sustaining the regional trade liberalization policy as gauged or inferred. A country being net importer or net exporter of any product is an indication of latent gains or losses in tariff revenue, respectively. The study concludes that Nigeria sustains ECOWAS trade liberalization policy by losing accruable/latent revenues in products where she is net exporter (supplier) to the sub-regional members who import at zero tariff charges, and gains inherent revenues in products where she is a net importer; hence, the losses outweigh gains. All members are advised to pursue and improve the sub-regional trade policy by engaging in production of goods that have extended value chain, culminating to net product exporter status in products where she has a comparative advantage. In this way, members will on the long run maintain an increasing threshold of net export to push the sub-regional policy agenda of growth and development.

The US-Sino trade war will have significant repercussions on the global trade system. This study assesses the implications of the subsequent rounds of tariff hikes implemented by the US and Chinese governments on global value chains, with a focus on the major European Union economies. The evaluation is based on a computable general equilibrium model which incorporates a decomposition of trade in a value-added basis and allows to identify how changes in the conditions under which US-China trade is conducted affect the value contributed by different countries and to what extent. I find that US integration within GVCs contracts whereas China increases its participation mainly as a seller to global networks. The EU countries strengthen their linkages with the US and EU regional integration increases as a consequence of the tariff war between the US and China.

We analyse the ‘indirect effects’ of Brexit on African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries’ exports that use the UK as a platform to access the EU market and vice versa. First, we use the EORA26 multi-region input–output database for 186 countries and 26 sectors to characterize the ACP domestic content embedded in bilateral trade between the UK and the EU. Second, we apply the GTAP-VA module to carry out a simulation of how the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement will impinge on 121 countries and 65 products. The results suggest that while ‘indirect effects’ on ACP countries’ exports may exist, their economic magnitude is small in aggregate because ACP countries supply only small amounts of inputs used in UK–EU bilateral trade. Our simulations also show that these effects may be offset by the likely increase in ACP domestic content in exports because of TCA friction, mainly towards the UK.

The US-Sino trade war will have significant repercussions on the global trade system. This study assesses the implications of the subsequent rounds of tariff hikes implemented by the US and Chinese governments on global value chains, with a focus on the major European Union economies. The evaluation is based on a computable general equilibrium model which incorporates a decomposition of trade in a value-added basis and allows to identify how changes in the conditions under which US-China trade is conducted affect the value contributed by different countries and to what extent. I find that US integration within GVCs contracts whereas China increases its participation mainly as a seller to global networks. The EU countries strengthen their linkages with the US and EU regional integration increases as a consequence of the tariff war between the US and China.

We analyse the likely trade effects of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which defines the post-Brexit trading environment between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). We apply a computable general equilibrium model and focus on trade in value added rather than just the gross values of exports and imports. We describe the TCA and estimate its effects on the costs of conducting UK-EU trade, including various non-tariff barriers in both goods and services. We suggest that the TCA will reduce UK trade significantly: total exports by around 7 per cent and imports by around 14 per cent. In terms of value added (i.e. incomes generated), textiles and vehicles, both of which trade extensively with the EU, suffer heavily, as do services which trade significantly with the EU, face large increases in trade barriers, and experience declining demand from other sectors as those sectors' exports fall. Such inter-industry linkages spread the losses from Brexit widely through the economy.

Since production and trade are increasingly organized within global value chains (GVCs), assessing who effectively pays the cost of protection is not straightforward and since productive processes are internationally fragmented, quantifying the effects of trade policy requires an enhanced analytical framework that takes international input–output linkages into account to assess the implications trade costs have on competitiveness at national and sector levels. This paper defines a new synthetic measure of trade protection based on the value added in trade, capturing the effects that the tariff structure has on exporting firms that rely on imported intermediate inputs. The index, defined in a general equilibrium framework, provides a theoretically sound protection measurement in the context of GVCs. We assess trade protection by computing protection indexes at the bilateral level on both gross imports and imports to exports using the Global Trade Analysis Project computable general e...

Egyptian economic history has been influenced by the identify two sets of products: six products where tariff import-substitution industrialization approach to cuts will not be politically costly, and six where it will be development, dating back to Gamal Abdel Nasser's Pan-politically costly, In both cases, lowering tariffs will Arabic and socialist movement in the 1950s. Two major improve resource allocation and efficiency in the waves of liberalization have marked the government's industries involved. efforts to rationalize and modernize the economy-the The prospects of a free trade area with Europe should Infitah (opening) promoted by Anwar Sadat in the also help reduce tariffs in sectors where a high share of 1980s, and further trade and privatization efforts by production is exported or imported from Europe. If Hosni Mubarak in the 1990s. Nonetheless, the extent of products are exported to Europe, the potential free trade liberalization does not compare well with similar access to the European market should more than countries. Despite a decade of liberalization, the trade compensate for any tariff reductions in the local market. regime is characterized by deliberate and gradual On the other hand, if products are heavily imported reforms. By 1999 these reforms had led to average tariffs from Europe, the preferential access for European close to 30 percent, with high dispersion and escalation, exporters will tend to significantly increase their well above those in comparable countries. presence in the Egyptian market. This inr turn will reduce Dorsati and Olarreaga provide a political economy the "protective" aspect of external tariffs in sectors with analysis of the difficulties of liberalizing tariffs in Egypt large import penetration as competition will be coming in general, and in its specific industries. They present the from Europe. theoretical and empirical models and discuss the results. The EU-Egypt agreement includes a lengthy (19 years) The authors also explore the potential effects of the structure of tariff reduction. This structure will lead to Euro-Med agreement for Egypt. increased effective rates of protection for the first eight The political economy analysis of the Egyptian tariff years of its implementation, added economic distortions, structure identifies two sets of highly protected sectors. and inefficient use of resources. The Egyptian authorities Overprotected industries are defined as those with actual may want to consider speeding up the Euro-Med tariffs at least 25 percent higher than what is predicted schedule of liberalization to mitigate an increase in by the political economy variables. The political effective rates of protection. Furthermore, special effort determinants can be divided into two groups: the should be made to reduce external tariffs on semilobbying and counter-lobbying forces. First, the lobbying processed and processed goods to attenuate the expected strength of specific capital in each sector is proxied by negative effects of the rise in effective rates of protection. the degree of industry concentration, the labor-capital More generally, to prevent the high potential for trade ratio, and the import penetration ratio. Second, counter-diversion associated with Egypt's high tariffs, a lobbying in factor or input markets is proxied by wage simultaneous reduction in Egypt's external tariffs should level, degree of processing in the industry, and degree of accompany the EU-Egypt agreement. intra-industry trade. Using this methodology, the authors This paper-a product of Trade, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to understand the determinants of protection in developing countries. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank,

We explore the impact of the introduction and design of labor clauses (LCs) in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on bilateral trade flows over the period 1990-2014. While it is not a priori clear if the inclusion of LCs in PTAs will decrease or increase bilateral trade, we expect the direction of trade to matter, that is, we expect to observe the (negative or positive) impact of LCs in the South-North trade configuration. We also expect, in that configuration, stronger LCs to yield stronger (negative or positive) effects on bilateral trade flows. Using a novel dataset on the content of labor provisions in PTAs, we find in line with our first expectation that while the introduction of LCs has on average no impact on bilateral trade flows, it increases exports of low and middle-income countries with weaker labor standards in North-South trade agreements. Consistent with our second expectation, this positive impact is mostly driven by LCs with institutionalized cooperation provisions. In contrast, LCs with strong enforcement mechanisms do not have a statistically significant impact on exports of developing countries in North-South PTAs. The results are inconsistent with the ideas that LCs are set for protectionist reasons or have protectionist effects, casting doubt on the logic for the reluctance of many developing countries to include LCs in their trade agreements.

The proliferation of preferential trade liberalization over the last 20 years has raised the question of whether it slows down multilateral trade liberalization. Recent theoretical and empirical evidence indicates this is the case even for unilateral preferences that developed countries provide to small and poor countries but there is no estimate of the resulting welfare costs. To avoid this stumbling block effect we suggest replacing unilateral preferences by a fixed import subsidy. We argue that this scheme would reduce the drag of preferences on multilateral liberalization and generate a Pareto improvement. More importantly, we provide the first estimates of the welfare cost of preferential liberalization as a stumbling block to multilateral liberalization. By combining recent estimates of the stumbling block effect of preferences with data for 170 countries and over 5,000 products we calculate the welfare effects of the United States, European Union and Japan switching from unilateral preferences to Least Developed Countries to the import subsidy scheme. Even in a model with no dynamic gains to trade we find that the switch produces an annual net welfare gain for the 170 countries ($4,354 million) and for each group: the United States, European Union and Japan

The paper examines the impact of export promotion on aggregate unemployment. We find that increases in the share of Export Promotion Agencies' (EPAs) budgets on total exports lead to small decreases in aggregate unemployment. This effect is amplified when export promotion efforts are concentrated in sectors in which the country has a comparative advantage. On the other hand, when EPAs aim at reducing aggregate unemployment by focusing their efforts in sectors with high levels of unemployment, then aggregate unemployment increases. These results suggest that even if EPAs' priorities were to shift towards reducing unemployment, this would be better addressed by focusing on sectors in which the country has a comparative advantage rather than sectors with high labor market frictions.

We explore the impact on bilateral trade flows of the inclusion of a labor clause (LC) in Trade Agreements (TAs). Using a gravity type framework, we find that the introduction of LCs has on average no impact on bilateral trade flows. However, there is some interesting heterogeneity. Exports of low-income countries benefit from the introduction of LCs in North-South trade agreements. Interestingly, the impact is stronger when accompanied by deep cooperation. On the other hand, stronger enforcement mechanisms, at best, marginally reinforce the impact of LCs. The results are clearly inconsistent with the idea that LC are set for protectionist reasons, casting doubt on the reluctance by low-income countries to include labor clauses in their trade agreements.

In this paper we provide a selective survey of the literature on foreign direct investment (FDI) policies and evaluate the potential benefits of international disciplines on such policies for developing countries. The discussion focuses on technology spillovers from FDI, fiscal and financial incentives, and the economics of investment measures because these issues are central from the viewpoint of developing countries. In principle the major potential gain from a multilateral agreement is avoidance of wasteful competition for FDI and attenuating the locational distortions resulting from regional integration agreements. However, to be effective, such an agreement would need to be highly comprehensive and would be costly to negotiate. At present, this does not seem like a promising prospect. Multilateral negotiating efforts that center on further market access liberalization on a nondiscriminatory basis, including services, are likely to be most fruitful from an economic welfare and growth perspective.

The purpose of this research is to examine the influence of scale and location on the multiplier values associated with tourism expenditure in each of the regions of Indonesia. Furthermore, various factors are examined that determine the economic impacts of tourism to better understand how scale of accommodation and location can be used as a conceptual framework to help comprehend the patterns and interactions across regions. These concepts may be used to reveal the complexities underlying the fundamental structures in developing countries to show to what extent development facilitates tourism, and to what extent tourism encourages development. The specific objectives of the research are as follows: 1. To examine the effects of scale of accommodation on the multiplier values within the framework of similarities and differences in the levels of development, density and accessibility in the regions. The results can be used to identify the factors that influence the economic impact of tourism. This perspective examines tourism not only as a source of demand but also the simultaneous relationship between supply and demand within the intersectoral linkages of the nationalregional Indonesian economic structure. 2. To examine the locational effects on the characteristics of multiplier values associated with tourism within the coreperiphery relationship of the 27 regions of Indonesia. The study analyses the different locations of these regions as tourism destinations and compares how they act as a mediating absorption force for tourism's contribution to regional development. ii 3. To determine the characteristics of the economic impact of tourism in order to aid regional development planning with a better understanding of the concept of intersectoral and interspatial systems by treating tourism in a holistic manner and putting it in a broader context. Tourism, similar to other export industries, involves intersectoral activities, which is based on the recognition that the various sectors that make up the structure of the economy are interdependent. What makes tourism a unique phenomenon compared to other consumer-production relationships is that tourists must travel to the location of the destination in order to consume its product. It is this essential characteristic of tourism that ensures that it has a simultaneous effect not only on economic but also social, environmental and cultural structures in the region concerned. However, the impacts on environment and socio-cultural matters are outside the scope of the thesis. Due to these complex realities, tourism in developing countries can not be approached only in terms of master planning or marketing, rather it is fundamentally a problem of development. The main findings of this research indicate that each region has its own regional differentiation and unique characteristics. These differences involve location or accessibility, proximity to the centres of economic activities, regional economic structures, type and characteristics of tourist activities, and spending patterns. These findings seem to confirm the combined input/output and deductive gravity principles whereby the effects of interlinkages and interspatial factors are strongly intertwined in determining multiplier values of tourism across regions. iii In brief, the less developed the regions, and the farther the accessibility from the centre, the smaller the resulting multiplier values. There is a concept of 'absorption' involved in these relationships, in that multiplier values are gradually absorbed in proportion to flow per unit of economic distance. This evidence suggests that tourism in Indonesia is strongly related not only to development disparities but also to locational constraints. It is hoped that these findings, which offer an understanding of the contribution of scale and location in tourism and regional development, may help address national and regional tourism development policy-making and strategies in developing countries.

This study has been prepared in the context of the UNU-WIDER Visiting PhD Fellowship programme and is published within the UNU-WIDER project GRD -Government Revenue Dataset. It is part of UNU-WIDER's Domestic Revenue Mobilization (DRM) programme, which is financed through specific contributions by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad).

The goal of most empirical studies in econometrics and other social sciences is to determine whether a change in one variable causes a change in or helps to predict another variable. Granger causality modeling approach is quite popular in experimental and nonexperimental fields which involve some dynamic econometric time series methodologies. In this paper, Granger causality and co-integration tests were employed in the empirical modelling of seven economic indicators in Nigeria. The results alternated between bidirectional, uni-directional and no causality among the economic indicators considered. Prior to the Granger causality tests, we tested for stationarity in the variables using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) procedure. The variables proved to be integrated of either I(1) or I(2). Johansen co-integration test reveals that at 5% level of significance, we have at least four co-integrating pairs among the variables. This verifies the fact that when two or more time series are ...

There is a lack of close historic parallel to the economic impact of COVID-19. The COVID19 shock has led to most economies in the Euro area experiencing exchange rate pressures, enormous job losses and contractions in output. By recognising that a stable currency has the tendency to reverse some of these challenges, this study investigates the impact of the pandemic on the exchange rate of all EU member countries. The main objective is to find the relationship between the government’s lockdown measures measured by the Stringency index and monthly exchange rate per the USD for all EU member countries. Using both a correlation and a Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) model, the results show that as lockdown measures intensified, countries in Europe lost their competitiveness in the long-run. In the short-run however, only Cyprus, the Czech Republic and Greece lost their competitiveness as the lockdown measures intensified. The results also confirm the asymmetry of shocks in Europe, ...

Purpose This paper aims to use Latin America as a laboratory to better understand the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) and outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) (both in total as well as in regional flows) and also examine the moderating effect of trade openness on that relationship. Latin America is an ideal study context for this purpose because of the relative homogeneity of its countries, which reduces confounding effects and increases comparability. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses longitudinal panel regression models with moderation effects. Secondary data were gathered on IFDI (per country and per country-sector), OFDI (total per country and region-targeted per country) and on trade openness from 11 Latin American countries. Findings IFDI in natural resources is positively associated with OFDI in both overall total flows and regional flows. The effect of IFDI in manufacturing has a consistent negative effect on total OFDI. IFDI in ser...

Having exports from more than one Russian gas producer has been an important issue in the Russian–EU energy dialogue during the last decade. Nevertheless, in June 2006, Russian Federal law legalized the de facto export monopoly of Gazprom. Political and commercial interests have regularly explained the Russian strategy for the European gas market. However, it is important that economic efficiency

Despite severe global upheavals BRICS countries as a group able to maintain its high growth trajectory as compared to the growth rate in the world in general and developed countries in particular. Therefore, this paper makes an attempt to analyse the role of domestic demand components in growth by separating domestic and external demand in BRICS countries during 1991 to 2012. It also elaborately discusses the estimation procedure to decompose the growth rate into various demand components and lists out some methodological issues. The decomposition analysis suggests that though the growth rate in these economies can be largely attributed to domestic demand factors, external demand is also important to attain a high growth rate. In this sense,both domestic and external demands are complementary to each other.

By examining the economic performances of the new members of the EU in the 2000s, it is aimed to investigate possible developments in the Turkish economy, in case Turkey becomes a full member of the European Union (EU). The study covers thirteen member countries that were accepted as full members of the EU in the 2000s and Turkey, which is a candidate country for the EU. Eight (there were seven members when the study was done) of the new members are also in the Euro Area (Eurozone). While eleven of the new members are located in Central and Eastern Europe, Malta and Cyprus are two island countries located in the Mediterranean. The correlation between the countries' GDP per capita was investigated after testing the normality of the data for the country set. The growth performance was investigated with a growth convergence equation. Different unit root tests for time series and panel data were applied to analyse the breakpoints within the GDP per capita of the EU member countries considering the membership. Time series data were used for individual member state analysis whereas panel data were used for income convergence analysis of the country set. Lithuania has the best performance in income per capita increase in the 1995-2021 period whereas Romania has the second and Latvia has the third best performance. Due to the convergence theorem, new member countries have the highest growth rate than the EU and Eurozone in income per capita in the 1995-2021 period.

This paper attempts to reconcile the often inconclusive evidence on the impact of FDI on growth by taking two into account the heterogeneity both among industries and among countries. Using a comparable database at the industry level for 35 countries in OECD, Asia and Eastern Europe from 1987 to 2002, we test both stage of development and FDI industrial pattern for the economic impact of FDI on growth. In certain industries and for the catching-up countries, a significant and positive relationship emerges when FDI interacts with investment or export orientation.

The aggregate analysis of tariff reforms usually sacrifices essential general equilibrium effects for the sake of simplicity. The aim of this paper is to integrate recent theoretical indicators of trade restrictiveness built in a general equilibrium framework into a growth of trade approach derived from the gravity model in order to evaluate the effect of tariff reforms on aggregate market access. The estimation of our integrated model allows us to compute the change in a country's uniform tariff and to decompose it into the average tariff and a tariff dispersion effects, capturing the tariffs own and cross-product import restrictiveness arising from trade negotiations at the tariff line. The evidence for a sample of 97 countries over the period 2001-2009 is that the progress in market access achieved by the erosion of mean tariffs has been counteracted in some years and countries by a selective protection which restricts imports. The analysis performed in this paper reveals the prominent role of tariff dispersion in measuring the progress in market access and may be a tool to evaluate tariff policies and the aggregate trade effects of negotiations at the tariff line.

En este trabajo hemos analizado si el reciente Acuerdo o Tratado Transpacífico (TTP) provoca un efecto mediante la creación y desviación del comercio de Puerto Rico con sus socios comerciales. El interés de este análisis reside en que el TTP es uno de los tratados comerciales más importantes jamás firmados, a la vez que Puerto Rico es una economía pequeña con una singular relación política y comercial con los Estados Unidos de América. Hemos utilizado una muestra de 97 países durante el periodo 1998-2014 para analizar como varían las exportaciones e importaciones de Puerto Rico antes y después del TTP. Además, estudiamos el efecto que el acuerdo puede tener en la inversión extranjera directa (IED). Utilizamos un modelo de gravedad y una estimación Poisson (PPML) y el GSEM

Capítulo 1 -Enquadramento das finanças internacionais 1.1. Evolução histórica do Sistema Monetário Internacional 1.2. O Sistema Monetário Europeu e o euro 1.3. Os mercados de capitais globais e a organização dos negócios internacionais Capítulo 2 -Mercado de câmbios

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent intergovernmental organisation. Its mission is, according to its statute, to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry. Many authors point out that OPEC has lost his position in the oil market, others have the opposite opinion. This paper will explore the genuine role of the organisation in the global oil market by analysing its production quotas and its real oil production and their impact on the oil prices. The main conclusion of this paper is that OPEC has still a power in the global oil market but less than other time before.

This chapter examines the impact of low oil prices in the last years on the trade balance of Balkan countries and their energy security. The development of oil prices in the last years has a potential impact on all economies. Indeed the impact was positive for crude oil importing economies but in the other hand, negative impact on crude oil exporting economies. According to our analysis, the impact was positive on all Balkan economies, regardless the scale of the impact. The positive impact was clear on the trade balance of all Balkan countries, for example in 2015 they registered a significant decrease in their deficit of trade balance comparing to 2011. For the energy security of Balkan should be insured by other alternative energy resources, among them natural gas and renewable energy resources. Contribution/ Originality: This paper is a contribution to the literature of energy economics for researchers and business companies operated in the energy sector. It is an analysis of oil prices and their impact on trade balance of Balkan region and explores the energy security position of that region in the last years.

This study examined the relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and export performance in Nigeria at the aggregate and disaggregated level between 1980 and 2014. It employed time series analysis that incorporated the estimation of long run estimation for the specified export equations. Empirical analysis revealed a positive and significant impact on total export and exports in manufacturing, oil and services sectors. However, FDI does not have any significant relationship with agricultural exports. This underscores the need to eliminate discriminatory policy towards foreign investors and provide incentives and facilities to enhance export especially in the manufacturing and agricultural sector. Nevertheless, real exchange rate, terms of trade and the productive capacity are other factors that influence export performance in Nigeria.