Applied Econometrics

An error correction model is derived from a stochastic dynamic programming problem incorporating rational expectations. A parametric restriction is derived that allows a test for the theoretical proposition that the optimal strategy behind the error correction from entails the failure to asymptotically close the gap between the choice variable and the growing target. This is accomplished by nesting a partial adjustment model with forward‐looking expectations within the error correction paradigm. The counterintuitive behaviour embodied in the error correction model is not supported by the data in the context of a cross‐country comparison of cash balances relationships.

Evaluating investments with long-term consequences using discount rates that decline with the time horizon, (Declining Discount Rates or DDRs) means that future welfare changes are of greater consequence in present value terms. Recent work in this area has turned towards operationalising the theory and establishing a schedule of DDRs for use in cost benefit analysis. Using US data we make the following points concerning this transition: i) model selection has important implications for operationalising a theory of DDRs that depends upon uncertainty; ii) misspecification testing naturally leads to employing models that account for changes in the interest rate generating mechanism. Lastly, we provide an analysis of the policy implications of DDRs in the context of climate change for the US and show that the use of a state space model can increase valuations by 150% compared to conventional constant discounting.

In recent times, inflation figures used by policy makers and investors are usually at lag one (i.e. previous month's inflation rate). The reality of the present day situation where changes in the economy increases with a high degree of uncertainty, decision of monetary policy tools requires the use of current figures of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation. This paper, therefore aims at modelling and forecasting Nigeria's inflation rate for the current period, using the Kalman filter methodology. This paper reveals that estimating the Nigerian headline inflation rate using the Kalman filter approach is more efficient than the popular Box-Jenkins ARIMA(0,1,0). The efficiency of the Kalman Filter was mainly as a result of its built in specification for updating the estimation with the latest available information. This is evident the unbiased insample estimation of the headline inflation as well as the significant result of the results of the diagnostics test. Hence, the...

In recent times, inflation figures used by policy makers and investors are usually at lag one (i.e. previous month's inflation rate). The reality of the present day situation where changes in the economy increases with a high degree of uncertainty, decision of monetary policy tools requires the use of current figures of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation. This paper, therefore aims at modelling and forecasting Nigeria's inflation rate for the current period, using the random walk with drift. The result will enable policy makers and investors determine inflation rate ahead of the time the official figures will be released. Our result shows that in the last 12-months, there has been a high degree of correlation (99.8%) between the forecast values and the official data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The results also indicate the need to study the long memory properties of the series.

El presente documento analiza la sostenibilidad de la deuda publica de Guatemala bajo escenarios de incertidumbre. Para el efecto se emplean dos metodos de estimacion basados en Mendoza y Oviedo (2004) y Garcia y Rigobon (2004). El metodo MendozaOviedo permite hacer un analisis de sostenibilidad de la deuda suponiendo que los ingresos futuros del gobierno son inciertos, mientras que el nivel de gasto se mantiene mas o menos constante. Este metodo proporciona tanto el limite natural de la deuda, como la probabilidad de alcanzar dicho limite en el mediano plazo. Por su parte Garcia y Rigobon estudian la sostenibilidad de la deuda desde una perspectiva del manejo de riesgo. En este caso, todas las variables que explican la acumulacion de la deuda publica se consideran inciertas. Al tomar en cuenta estos aspectos la nocion de la sostenibilidad de la deuda se expande a estudiar las propiedades estocasticas de la dinamica de la deuda.

plus other regional and macroeconomic Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. variables. Predictive accuracy is analyzed using in-sample model simulations. Results Finance, indicate that narrowing yield spreads, real peso appreciation, and oil price declines are

This study examines the long-run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission among the USA, Germany, and four major Eastern European emerging stock markets, with particular attention to the impact of the 1998 Russian financial crisis. The results show that both the long-run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission were strengthened among these markets after the crisis. The influence of Germany became noticeable on all the Eastern European markets only after the crisis but not before the crisis. We also conduct a rolling generalized VAR analysis to confirm the robustness of the main findings.

Is the wage gap between majors in human arts and other fields caused by the education? If the educational choice is endogenous, the wage gap may instead be caused by selection. We document that individuals' educational choice is correlated with that of older students and by the concentration of women in their high school. Conditional on high school fixed effects, these characteristics are unlikely to affect post-university wages and are plausible instruments for the educational choice. Our 2SLS estimates reveal that the gap in returns to education is negligible, implying that the wage gap is attributable to selection.

This paper develops a new method for estimating a demand function and the welfare consequences of price changes. The method is applied to gasoline demand in the U.S. and is applicable to other goods. The method uses shape restrictions derived from economic theory to improve the precision of a nonparametric estimate of the demand function. Using data from the U.S. National Household Travel Survey, we show that the restrictions are consistent with the data on gasoline demand and remove the anomalous behavior of a standard nonparametric estimator. Our approach provides new insights about the price responsiveness of gasoline demand and the way responses vary across the income distribution. We find that price responses vary nonmonotonically with income. In particular, we find that low-and high-income consumers are less responsive to changes in gasoline prices than are middle-income consumers. We find similar results using comparable data from Canada.

The volatility of equity returns for two beverages traded on the Nigerian stock exchange is the subject of this study. The ARCH effect test demonstrated that the two beverages disprove the claim that there is no ARCH effect. According to the preliminary analysis, both beverages were volatile. CGARCH and EGARCH were chosen as the best volatility models for Guinness Nigeria Plc returns and Nigeria Breweries returns, respectively, based on model selection criteria. The EGARCH model, on the other hand, rejected the idea that Guinness Nigeria Plc’s equity returns respond equally to negative and positive shocks of similar magnitude. This study’s findings suggest that the government should be cautious about how it manages inflation and foreign direct investment because they affect the rising stock price. Financial stability will likely be a more direct and explicit part of the macroeconomic responsibilities of central banks in the coming years.

This paper analyzes the life-cycle career costs associated with child rearing and decomposes their effects into unearned wages (as women drop out of the labor market), loss of human capital, and selection into more child-friendly occupations. We estimate a dynamic life-cycle model of fertility, occupational choice, and labor supply using detailed survey and administrative data for Germany for numerous birth cohorts across different regions. We use this model to analyze both the male-female wage gap as it evolves from labor market entry onward and the effect of pro-fertility policies. We show that a substantial portion of the gender wage gap is explainable by realized and expected fertility and that the long-run effect of policies encouraging fertility are considerably lower than the short-run effects typically estimated in the literature.

Recent socio-spatial studies point out a number of ongoing trends in the "scale division of labor of the state," including among others, "destatization," "denationalization, and "internationalization." We draw on the literature in public economics to review several approaches to measuring state rescaling. We employ these measures to produce empirical evidence on the extent of state rescaling and its determinants. We find that over the last two decades there has been a world trend towards decentralization while the average government size has not changed.

This study examines the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth in selected MENA countries in the period 2005-2010. The results show that FDI has positive and significant effect on economic growth, so that an increase of 1 percent of its value, growth, 0.03 percent increased.

In this paper, I present an axiomatic choice theory of Bayesian decision makers and define choice-based subjective probabilities that truly represent Bayesian decision makers' prior and posterior beliefs. I give an example that illustrates the potential consequences of ascribing to a decision maker subjective probabilities that do not represent his beliefs. I argue that no equivalent results may be obtained in theories that invoke Savage's (1954) idea of a state space.

Avec les objectifs de développement durable (ODD) et de l'Agenda 2063 de l'Union Africaine, le développement financier est aujourd’hui au centre de la croissance pour réduire les inégalités et la pauvreté en Afrique subsaharienne. Dans cette perspective, l’objectif de cet article est d’examiner l'impact du développement financier sur la croissance inclusive, en mettant l'accent sur l'inclusion financière dans les pays de l'UEMOA. En utilisant la méthode de l'Analyse en Composantes Principales (ACP), un indice de croissance inclusive a été calculé. L’étude a utilisé la méthode des triples moindres carrés (TMC) pour estimer un modèle à équations simultanées en panel sur la période 2011 – 2021. Les résultats montrent la résilience du système financier de la région malgré les crises passées et soulignent l'importance de la politique monétaire pour assurer sa stabilité à long terme. L’étude montre également que le développement financier favorise l'accès à des services financiers diversifiés de qualité, ce qui améliore les performances économiques et réduire les inégalités. Par ailleurs l'étude confirme que l'inclusion financière contribue à une réduction des inégalités de revenu, renforçant ainsi la croissance inclusive. En réponse, les politiques devraient promouvoir l'accès aux services financiers pour toutes les couches sociales et intensifier les efforts pour réduire les inégalités. Ces conclusions soulignent les défis à relever pour atteindre l'émergence économique dans les pays de l'UEMOA.

Using panel data from 144 countries, this study constructed an inclusive financial evaluation index and depicted the inclusive finance development worldwide under digital empowerment through classification. It reviewed the spatial effect of financial inclusion in developed and developing countries by throwing light on demand, supply, and regulatory factors via the spatial Durbin model. The mediating and regulatory effects model examines the transmission mechanism of financial inclusion with a focus on financial literacy, scientific and technological levels, and regulatory quality. The results show that the level of financial inclusion in developed countries is significantly higher than in developing countries. The economic level of developed countries positively impacts financial inclusion in their countries and neighbouring ones. Enhancing financial literacy, science and technological level, and supervision quality improve the development of inclusive finance. While the economic level and urbanization rate in developing countries inhibit the development of financial inclusion, countries with lower economic development and urbanization rates have a greater incentive to develop digital financial inclusion. The improved economic development in developing countries favours financial inclusion in countries nearby. Moreover, financial literacy plays a positive moderating role in the effect of digital finance on financial inclusion. The technology level can exert a transmission effect on financial inclusion through an elevated level of digital finance. The impact of regulatory quality on financial inclusion can be conveyede by creating a stable economic and financial environment and improving economic development levels. This study expands the theoretical research on constructing an inclusive finance evaluation system and its impact mechanism. It provides essential decision-making references for governments, relevant decision-making departments, financial institutions and financial technology enterprises to develop inclusive finance.

The study examines the relationship between fertility and female labour participation, as a comparative analysis between Malaysia and Singapore-being two countries with relatively robust economies in Southeast Asia. The study covers the period from 1985 to 2015 as a basis for comparison between the countries. The ADF test of unit root and ARDL Bounds test were employed in examining the stationarity properties and long-run relationship among the chosen variables, while also addressing any possible endogeneity. The study equally employs the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression in addressing the possible simultaneity problem which may arise in the coefficient estimation, while the Granger causality test was used to observe the direction of causation among the variables. The findings in each of the countries indicate that there is a negative relationship between fertility and female labour participation, with causality running from female labour participation through fertility, hence upholding the Role Incompatibility Hypothesis. Therefore, the answer to our topic question is in dissident: that the effect of fertility on female labour participation is the same in the two countries.

This study explores the intricate relationship between governance indicators, socioeconomic factors, and economic growth as measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) across a sample of emerging economies. The primary objective is to assess the extent to which governance quality and socioeconomic variables influence GDP growth, while also investigating the potential feedback loops between these elements. A comprehensive set
of governance indicators, such as corruption control, political stability, and the rule of law, are analyzed alongside key socioeconomic factors, including education, healthcare, and income distribution.
The study hypothesizes that better governance leads to better socioeconomic conditions, which in turn positively impacts economic growth. Conversely, it also posits that robust economic growth may reinforce governance improvements, creating a cyclical relationship.
By applying econometric methods, including Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models, the study aims to quantify the influence of governance on economic growth, considering both direct and indirect channels. Furthermore, the research delves into the nonlinear interactions between governance and socioeconomic factors, assessing their combined effects on GDP growth over time. The data used spans multiple decades, encompassing a wide range of developing countries
with varying levels of governance quality and socioeconomic development. By considering this diverse set of variables, the study provides insights into the mechanisms through which governance and socioeconomic conditions shape long-term economic performance. The findings aim to contribute to the literature on economic development, offering policy
implications for governments seeking to improve governance and socioeconomic conditions to foster sustained economic growth.
The paper is based on secondary data and literature. The time series data ranges from 1991 to 2023. The political parties are classified like Indian National Congress, United Front Government (UF), United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the study. The data have been collected from World Bank, UNDP and RBI sources. Governance data on six indicators consist of voice and accountability;
political stability and absence of violence; government effectiveness; regulatory quality; rule of law; control of corruption. The socio-economic data consist of proportions of seats held by women in national parliament (%), school enrollment, primary (% gross), life expectancy at birth(total years), human development index, access to electricity rural(% of rural population), expenditure on education, infant mortality rate, adolescent fertility
rate, total vulnerable employment (% of total employment), total unemployment (% of total labour force) etc. The governance index and socio-economic index are constructed using UNDP methodology. Also the results of the paper revealed that there are some variations of development outcomes across different political regimes in India.
Keywords: Governance Indicators, Socioeconomic Factors, Economic Growth, GDP, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Vector Autoregression (VAR), Causality Analysis, Cointegration, Governance Impact. Emerging Economies, Longitudinal Study, Economic Development, Policy Implications.
JEL Classifications: C32, O43, H11

Une version plus complète et élaborée de ce document sera incluse dans Vangelis Th. Paschos (ed.), Optimisation combinatoire : problèmes paradigmatiques et problématiques nouvelles, Hermès Science, série Informatique et Systèmes d'Information † Partie de ce travail a été réalisé lorsque l'auteur était professeur invité à l'Université d'Athènes 1. Plusieurs auteurs utilisent encore le terme optimalité de Pareto au lieu de « stabilité de Pareto » pour ce concept.

Une version plus complète et élaborée de ce document sera incluse dans Vangelis Th. Paschos (ed.), Optimisation combinatoire : problèmes paradigmatiques et problématiques nouvelles, Hermès Science, série Informatique et Systèmes d'Information † Partie de ce travail a été réalisé lorsque l'auteur était professeur invité à l'Université d'Athènes 1. Plusieurs auteurs utilisent encore le terme optimalité de Pareto au lieu de « stabilité de Pareto » pour ce concept.

What is the relationship between inventory and sales? Clearly, inventory could increase sales: expanding inventory creates more choice (options, colors, etc.) and might signal a popular/desirable product. Or, inventory might encourage a consumer to continue her search (e.g., on the theory that she can return if nothing better is found), thereby decreasing sales (a scarcity effect). We seek to identify these effects in U.S. automobile sales. Our primary research challenge is the endogenous relationship between inventory and sales -e.g., dealers influence their inventory in anticipation of demand. Hence, our estimation strategy relies on weather shocks at upstream production facilities to create exogenous variation in downstream dealership inventory. We find that the impact of adding a vehicle of a particular model to a dealer's lot depends on which cars the dealer already has. If the added vehicle expands the available set of sub-models (e.g., adding a fourdoor among a set that is exclusively two-door), then sales increase. But if the added vehicle is of the same submodel as an existing vehicle, then sales actually decrease. Hence, expanding variety across sub-models should be the first priority when adding inventory-adding inventory within a sub-model is actually detrimental. In fact, given how vehicles were allocated to dealerships in practice, we find that adding inventory actually lowered sales. However, our data indicate that there could be a substantial benefit from the implementation of a "maximizes variety, minimize duplication" allocation strategy: sales increase by 4.4 percent without changing the number of vehicles at each dealership, and a 5.2 percent is possible if inventory is allowed to decrease by 2.8 percent (and no more than 10 percent at any one dealer).

combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper, we broadly reproduce their main economic findings, employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real-time variables. Mindful of the importance of Brent crude oil as a global price benchmark, we extend consideration to the North Sea based measure and update the evaluation sample to 2017:12. We model the oil price futures curve using a factor-based Nelson-Siegel specification estimated in real time to fill in missing values for oil price futures in the raw data. We find that the combined forecasts for Brent are as effective as for other oil price measures. The extended sample using the oil price measures adopted by Baumeister and Kilian (2015) yields similar results to those reported in their paper. And the futures-based model improves forecast accuracy at longer horizons. The real-time data set is available for download from . niesr.ac.uk/real-time-forecastcombinations-oil-price.

SummaryBaumeister and Kilian (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2015, 33(3), 338–351) combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper, we broadly reproduce their main economic findings, employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real‐time variables. Mindful of the importance of Brent crude oil as a global price benchmark, we extend consideration to the North Sea‐based measure and update the evaluation sample to 2017:12. We model the oil price futures curve using a factor‐based Nelson–Siegel specification estimated in real time to fill in missing values for oil price futures in the raw data. We find that the combined forecasts for Brent are as effective as for other oil price measures. The extended sample using the oil price measures adopted by Baumeister and Kilian yields similar results to those reported in their paper. Also, the futures‐based model improves forecast accuracy at longer horizons.

2018 se emplea un modelo probit para analizar los efectos de la educación considerando características sociodemográficas. Los resultados muestran comportamientos más favorables con el medio ambiente a medida que aumenta la escolaridad, aunque existen diferencias significativas entre personas: es más favorable entre menores de 55 años y habitantes rurales que entre miembros de sus grupos de control. Estos resultados son de interés para las iniciativas educativas que buscan mejorar la actitud hacia el medio ambiente.

espanolEl documento investiga sobre el tema persistente de la transmision de la politica monetaria desde la perspectiva de Nigeria desde 1980 hasta 2016. Aplicando una tecnica bidireccional de autorregresion vectorial y desfase autoregresivo distribuido, encontramos que (1) considerada conjuntamente, la politica monetaria no tiene ningun largo corre relacion con la actividad economica. (2) el canal de transmision de credito es ineficaz en la transmision de la politica monetaria en Nigeria. (3) el suministro de dinero, la tasa de interes y los canales de la tasa de cambio son canales positivos de transmision de la politica monetaria en Nigeria. Las principales recomendaciones de politica fueron un enfoque de politica monetaria de naturaleza mas fiscal y politicas especificas de instrumentos para cuestiones economicas especificas para hacer que el pais crezca por encima de la trayectoria de crecimiento recesivo. EnglishThe paper investigates on the lingering issue of monetary policy t...

L'objectif de ce travail est de proposer des solutions pour promouvoir l'inclusion financière en  Tunisie, en s'inspirant des bonnes pratiques et des expériences réussies d'autres pays. Nous  utilisons deux approches principales pour analyser l'impact des initiatives d'inclusion financière
dans des pays comparables sur l'inclusion financière en Tunisie : une analyse descriptive pour étudier la relation entre les variables explicatives et la variable expliquée, et une analyse  économétrique pour déterminer la nature de la relation entre les variables (à court ou à long
terme). Les résultats montrent que les variables explicatives suivantes : le nombre de DAB et de GAB bancaires, le nombre d'agences bancaires et d'établissements de paiement, le nombre de prestataires de services digitaux, le nombre de solutions digitales lancées par les banques, le
nombre d'actions d'éducation financière menées en Tunisie et le nombre de transactions de paiements mobiles, ont un impact positif et durable sur l'inclusion financière en Tunisie, mesurée par le nombre de comptes ouverts dans les banques et autres institutions financières (poste et établissements de paiement). À partir de ce constat, nous pourrions envisager  d'améliorer ces variables explicatives pour favoriser l'inclusion financière.
Mots-clés : inclusion financière, stratégie, banques, établissements financiers, nombre de  comptes

In this thesis, we present two different approaches for the stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate model with jump and analyze the performance of four alternative models. In the first approach, suggested by Scott, the closed form solution for prices on European call stock options are developed by deriving characteristic functions with the help of martingale methods. Here, we study the asset price process and give in detail the derivation of the European call option price process. The second approach, suggested by Bashki-Cao-Chen, describes the closed form solution of European call option by deriving the partial integro-differential equation. In this one we g ive the derivations of both asset price dynamics and the European call option price process. Finally, in the application part of the thesis, we examine the performance of four alternative models using General Electric Stock Option Data. These models are constructed by using the theoretical results of the second appro...

Empirical monetary policy research has increased in the last decade, possibly because deregulation and explicit monetary targets have made monetary policy issues more interesting. In particular, within the inflation targeting framework it has been argued that inflation forecasts can be used as optimal intermediate targets for monetary policy, and the development of empirical models that have good forecasting properties is therefore important. This paper shows that a VAR model with long‐run restrictions, justified by economic theory, is useful for both forecasting inflation and for analysing other issues that are central to the conduct of monetary policy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The study examined the effect of inflation on Nigeria’s economic growth for the period ranging from 1980 to 2015. Cointegration approach, vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality test were employed in the analysis. Variables engaged in the study involve real gross domestic product (RGDP), inflation rate (INFR), government investment expenditure (GINVXP), private investment expenditure (PINVXP) and total export (TEXP). The results of cointegration test showed evidence of long-run relationship among the selected variables. The VECM results demonstrated that inflation affect Nigeria’s economic growth negatively and insignificantly. More so, it was shown in the results that GINVXP and TEXP have significant and negative effect on RGDP. The results also indicate that PINVXP has significant and positive influence on RGDP. Similarly, the results of the Granger causality test revealed no causation between inflation rate and real GDP. The implication of these results is that...

Many work in the field of entrepreneurship inventories more or less significant predictions of entrepreneurship: Age, gender, education, family history, skills, risk acceptance. In this work, we aim to make one of these preachers, namely entrepreneurship education in the practicing companies, based on the assumption that successful simulation/practice of entrepreneurship from an early age coupled with the acquisition of specific knowledge and skills, it can lead to an incentive to do business on its own. We focused on high school students who are attending the training companies to see if they are interested in entrepreneurship in their colleagues. I used the group as a research tool, having an analysis group and a control group. The study's conclusions converge toward the idea that pupils in the firms of practice are first and foremost excited about becoming entrepreneurs, but not as realistic about the results of entrepreneurial activity, seeing the positive aspects (high income, flexible program, decision-makers) in the main less of the negative ones of this activity (risks, workload).

L’article a pour objectif de discuter les critiques formulées par Louis Althusser à l’égard des notions de structure et d’inconscient dans l’œuvre de Claude Lévi-Strauss. Nous cherchons ainsi à reconstituer le parcours des critiques althussériennes, depuis sa discussion sur la notion de structure et de temps historique, publiée dans l’ouvrage collectif Lire le Capital, jusqu’aux critiques de la notion d’inconscient et de l’approche ethnologique des sociétés dites primitives, présentes dans des lettres de l’auteur restées inédites jusqu’aux années 1990. À partir de la confrontation avec le texte lévi-straussien, nous montrons que la critique d’Althusser ne se limite pas à une simple comparaison entre les thèses anthropologiques et les thèses marxistes, mais qu’elle soulève une exigence fondamentale, celle d’une fonction épistémologique permettant d’expliquer la nécessité d’une certaine structure sociale.

Agro-biodiversity acts as a key environment resource that enhances the sustainability in any given eco-system. Much of the agro-biodiversity remaining in situ today is found on the semi-subsistence farms, small scale farms or home gardens. Labeled "home gardens" as a reflection of their institutional identity during the collectivization period, they are micro-agro ecosystems that provide important environmental functions and food security. This study applies the choice experiment method to estimate the private benefits farmers derive from four components of agro-biodiversity in the home gardens; richness of crop varieties and fruit trees, crop landraces, integrated crop and livestock production and soil microorganism diversity. Primary data collected from a sample of 189 households in the Kurunegala was used in this study. A conditional logit model was used to elicit willingness to accept by home garden owners for preserving above mentioned facets of agro-biodiversity. Results highlighted that the households' highest willingness to accept attribute was livestock integration. In addition other attributes such as organic production, landraces, pollination, fauna and flora diversity were significant components of a home garden. Findings demonstrate variation in the private values of home gardens and their attributes across households contributing to understand the potential role of home gardens in the area. This study has implications for sustaining agro-biodiversity in home gardens and in the country.

Entre los países emergentes los aumentos en el gasto público se han utilizado para superar periodos de recesiones, crisis económicas y como promotores del producto interno bruto (PIB). Sin embargo, no existe un consenso sobre el efecto que los aumentos del gasto público tienen para impulsar la actividad económica. En este sentido, el presente documento elabora un modelo estructural con vectores autorregresivos para cuantificar el efecto multiplicador que tienen el gasto público primario sobre el PIB mexicano en el periodo de 1993 a 2015. El principal hallazgo es que en México no existe evidencia estadística a favor de que el gasto público cree un efecto multiplicador para el PIB. Asimismo, el resultado es robusto a diversas especificaciones de los modelos bivariado y multivariado, y es consistente con la diferenciación entre gasto público corriente y de capital. Por otro lado, no se encuentra evidencia sobre efectos en el consumo privado y existen efectos negativos significativos para la inversión privada, por lo que se da un desplazamiento de esta inversión. Estos hallazgos apuntan a la necesidad de revisar conceptos de funcionamiento, manejo, eficiencia y calidad del gasto público en México. Lo anterior, permitiría generar evidencia para precisar aquellos mecanismos del gasto que funcionan para crear impactos positivos en la economía mexicana. * Número de rezagos óptimos. Fuente: Elaboración propia. * Número de rezagos óptimos. Fuente: Elaboración propia.

This paper builds a unifying framework that, within the theory of intertemporal consumption choices, brings together the limited participation -based explanation of the poor empirical performance of the C-CAPM and the transaction costs-based explanation of incomplete portfolios. Using the implications of the consumption model and observed household consumption and portfolio choices, we identify the preference parameters of interest and a lower bound for the costs rationalizing non-participation in financial markets, in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity in tastes for consumption and portfolio allocation. Using the US Consumer Expenditure Survey and assuming isoelastic preferences, we estimate the coefficient of relative risk aversion at 1.7 and a cost bound of 0.4 percent of non-durable consumption. Our estimate of the preference parameter is theoretically plausible and the bound sufficiently small to be likely to be exceeded by the actual total (observable and unobservable) costs of participating to financial markets.

Dalam kehidupan seharihari di masyarakat, seringkali ditemukan kesalahan dalam penulisan Bahasa Indonesia. Tujuan dari dibuatnya artikel ini adalah untuk menganalisis kesalahankesalahan yang ditemukan penulis yang ada di masyarakat. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah metode kualitatif. Penulisan kata seringkali mengikuti apa yang sedang tren dilingkungan masyarakat yang sebenarnya adalah suatu kesalahan. Namun untuk mengatasi itu, tentu ada beberapa kata alternatif yang dapat digunakan untuk memperbaiki kesalahan penulisan.

Table 5. Longley ' accuracy test. The Longley test is a commonly used benchmark for computational accuracy. The test consists of estimating the ordinary least squares coefficients for Longley's ill-conditioned, colinear data. The results using the three packages in this review are presented below. Variable 1 2 3 4 5 6 Constant Longley 0.01 5061 872272 -0.035819179293 -0.020202298038 -0.010332268672 -0.051 104105653 -3482.2586346 1.8291 5 14646 MATLAB 0.01506187227 -0.03581917929 -0.02020229804 -0.01033226867 -0.051 10410565 -3482.2586349802 1.8291 5 146461 GAUSS PC-ISP 0.015061 872272 -0.035819179293 -0.020202298038 -0.010332268672 -0.051 104105651 -3482.25863462 1.829151464627 0.01507 -0.03582 -0.02020 -0.01033 -0.051 10 -3482.0 1.829 Notes 1. Longley, J. W. (1967) An appraisal of the least squares programs for the electronic computer from the point of view of the user. Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, No. 31, pp. 819-41.

This article aims to provide an analysis for a time series data of gross domestic product (GDP) of the Sudan. An econometric time series model with macroeconomic variables is conducted. Since a non-stationary time series must be made stationary, some statistical tests are followed so that the time series become stationary series. After applying these tests, the time series became stationary and integrated of order I. Box-Jenkins procedure is used to determine ARMA. OLS is used to estimate the models parameters. Performances chosen ARIMA model are verified on the basis of classical statistical tests and forecasting. The model features are interpreted on the basis of standard measures of forecasting performance.

Traditional African vegetables are receiving more attention for their significant contribution to food and nutrition security and enhanced livelihoods of smallholders. Although demand is increasing for these nutrients-dense crops, the production of traditional vegetables in Tanzania remains low. Technical innovations can reduce yield gaps and increase the productivity of traditional vegetable crops. This paper measures the technical efficiency of farm households that produce traditional vegetables in Tanzania using a Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function. This study reports data from a primary survey of 181 households that cultivated traditional vegetables in five regions (Arusha, Tanga, Morogoro, Dodoma and Dar es Salaam) of Tanzania. The results show that overall mean technical efficiency is 67%. It indicates that if the average farmer of the sample could achieve the technical efficiency level of most efficient counterpart, then average farmers of the sample could increase their output by 27% with better use of available production resources given the current state of technology. Farmers were observed to be more technically efficient in the Arusha region than in the other study regions. Possible reasons for the observed regional difference include agroclimatic variability, access to extension services, and infrastructure facilities. A linear relationship exists between farm size and technical efficiency. The study concludes that strengthening farmer associations to encourage knowledge sharing and enhancing the existing cluster approach to farming may help to improve technical efficiency.

Factor models have been applied extensively for forecasting when high dimensional datasets are available. In this case, the number of variables can be very large. For instance, usual dynamic factor models in central banks handle over 100 variables. However, there is a growing body of the literature that indicates that more variables do not necessarily lead to estimated factors with lower uncertainty or better forecasting results. This paper investigates the usefulness of partial least squares techniques, that take into account the variable to be forecasted when reducing the dimension of the problem from a large number of variables to a smaller number of factors. We propose different approaches of dynamic sparse partial least squares as a means of improving forecast efficiency by simultaneously taking into account the variable forecasted while forming an informative subset of predictors, instead of using all the available ones to extract the factors. We use the well-known Stock and Watson database to check the forecasting performance of our approach. The proposed dynamic sparse models show a good performance in improving the efficiency compared to widely used factor methods in macroeconomic forecasting.

This paper uses the SBM-GML model to measure and evaluate green total factor productivity based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2012 to 2018. It examines the impact of different dimensions of financial decentralisation on green total factor productivity. The research results show that: 1) green total factor productivity in China is improved year by year and better in central and western regions; 2) the decentralisation of fiscal revenue and expenditure significantly weakens the increase of green total factor productivity in provincial level; 3) fiscal decentralisation inhibits green total factor productivity in central and western regions with regional heterogeneity; 4) local government competition affects the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and green total factor productivity, weakens the negative effect of fiscal decentralisation on green total factor productivity. Finally, the study aims to promote green total factor productivity and sustai...

The aims of this study were threefold: 1) study the research gap in carpark and price index via big data and natural language processing, 2) examine the research gap of carpark indices, and 3) construct carpark price indices via repeat sales methods and predict carpark indices via the AutoML. By researching the keyword "carpark" in Google Scholar, the largest electronic academic database that covers Web of Science and Scopus indexed articles, this study obtained 999 articles and book chapters from 1910 to 2019. It confirmed that most carpark research threw light on multi-storey carparks, management and ventilation systems, and reinforced concrete carparks. The most common research method was case studies. Regarding price index research, many previous studies focused on consumer, stock, press and futures, with many keywords being related to finance and economics. These indicated that there is no research predicting carpark price indices based on an AutoML approach. This study constructed repeat sales indices for 18 districts in Hong Kong by using 34,562 carpark transaction records from December 2009 to June 2019. Wanchai's carpark price was about four times that of Yuen Long's carpark price, indicating the considerable carpark price differences in Hong Kong. This research evidenced the features that affected the carpark price indices models most: gold price ranked the first in all 19 models; oil price or Link stock price ranked second depending on the district, and carpark affordability ranked third.

The aim of this paper was to investigated the effect of monetary policy uncertainty on stock market uncertainty in Iran. In this paper, the positive and negative shocks of monetary policy uncertainty were calculated using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. The annual data of Iran's economy over the period 2000-2022 were used. The results of the linear and nonlinear models show that monetary policy uncertainty affects stock market uncertainty in the long-run. The ARDL model shows that monetary policy uncertainty increases stock market uncertainty in the long-run. The results of the nonlinear ARDL model show that monetary policy uncertainty shocks do not have an asymmetric effect on stock market uncertainty, and negative shocks have a positive effect on stock market uncertainty in the long-run.

This paper derives a method for estimating and testing the Linear Quadratic Adjustment Cost (LQAC) model when the target variable and some of the forcing variables follow I(2) processes. Based on a forward-looking error-correction formulation of the model it is shown how to obtain strongly consistent estimates of the structural long-run parameters and the adjustment cost parameter from both a linear and a non-linear cointegrating regression, where first-differences of the I(2) variables are included as regressors (multicointegration). Further, based on the estimated parameter values, it is shown how to test and evaluate the LQAC model using a VAR approach. In an empirical application using UK money demand data, the non-linear multicointegrating regression delivers an economically plausible estimate of the adjustment cost parameter. However, the exact restrictions implied by the LQAC model under rational expectations are strongly rejected.

In this paper we demonstrate a new way of testing the linear quadratic adjustment cost (LQAC) model under rational expectations. We illustrate how the parameter restrictions arising from this model can be formally specified and we use these restrictions to extent the technique of Campbell and Shiller (1987) to a wider class of models based on present value relations. Potentially the demand for labour is an area in which the LQAC model can find applicability in practice and subsequently we analyse sectoral labour demand in Danish manufacturing. We find, however, that for our data set the quadratic adjustment cost model under rational expectations can be rejected.

The study presented here attempts to estimate the effect of increased price of cigarettes on the corresponding consumption in Tanzania. The study is based on household panel survey data that were conducted over three periods in 2008, 2010 and 2012. For each period price is estimated indirectly. The price increase was substantial and higher than the corresponding aggregate Consumer Price Index (CPI). An attempt is made to relate the increase in price with a possible decrease in cigarette consumption. The methods of analysis are descriptive tabular statistics and the «two-equation econometrics» approach. Over the study period, the descriptive approach showed a substantial increase in price but a modest decrease in cigarette consumption prevalence rate, intensity rate and per capita consumption. When a more robust and powerful econometric method was applied, the results showed a substantial decrease in consumption. There was a significant reduction in intensity compared to participatio...

Том 1 на монографията включва пет глави, свързани с проектирането на основните видове предавателни гърбични механизми. В следващи томове на монографията ще бъде представен синтезът на гърбично-центроидни, гърбично-лентови (псевдоцентроидни), инверсни, направляващи, преместващи и комбинирани гърбични механизми. Глава 1 включва основни сведения за структурните елементи на гърбичните механизми, илюстрации и кратки описания на различни видове равнинни и пространствени гърбични механизми, разделени на групи според функционалното им предназначение, както и начините за затваряне на структурите на гърбичните механизми. Глава 2 е посветена на различни обикновени, степенни, тригонометрични и степенно-тригонометрични закони на движение на изходното звено на гърбичните механизми. Обърнато е специално внимание на безударните закони на движение в т. ч. на закони за синтез на полидинамични гърбици. Множество графики, сравнителни таблици и препоръки дават възможност за подходящ избор на закон на движение съобразно зададени условия. Глава 3 съдържа теоретичните основи, използвани за съставяне на математичните модели за синтез на гърбичните механизми. Използваният теоретичен апарат се базира предимно на елементи на кинематичната и аналитичната геометрия, което дава възможност за адекватна, нагледна графична и математична интерпретация на синтеза, която без помощта на диференциалната геометрия разкрива напълно геометрията на гърбичните профили, вкл. техните кривини и еволюти. Глава 4 е посветена на синтеза на гърбични механизми с дискова гърбица и ротиращо (кобилица или кулиса) или транслиращо (ролков или тарелков плъзгач) изходно звено. Синтезът включва определяне на основните геометрични параметри и профилиране на еднодискови и двудискови гърбици по зададени кинематични или силови условия. Глава 5 е посветена на синтеза на гърбични механизми с линейна гърбица и ротиращо (кобилица или кулиса) или транслиращо (ролков или тарелков плъзгач) изходно звено. Синтезът включва определяне на основните геометрични параметри и профилиране на линейни гърбици по зададени кинематични или силови условия. Книгата е предназначена за инженери, техници, студенти, докторанти и преподаватели от висшите технически училища. © Автори: Проф. дтн инж. Витан Гълъбов Доц. д-р инж. Румен Русев Гл. ас. д-р инж. Благойка Пълева-Кадийска © Рецензенти: Доц. д-р инж. Илия Андонов Доц. д-р инж. Гочо Славов Печат: Издателство "Нов човек", тел: 0878 25 82 22 Volume 1 of the book includes five parts related to the synthesis of function generator cam mechanisms. In the next volumes of the monograph, the authors will present the synthesis of cam-centrodes, cam-bands (mechanism whit a flexible element), inverse (profiled-follower), path generator, motion generator (rigid-body guidance) and combined cam-link mechanisms. Chapter 1 provides basic information on the structural elements of the cam mechanisms, illustrations, and brief descriptions of the various types of planar and spatial cam mechanisms, divided into groups by their functional purpose, as well as how to close the structures of the cam mechanisms. Chapter 2 deals with the various ordinary, power, trigonometric, and powertrigonometric laws of motion of the output of the cam mechanisms. Special attention is paid to the laws of motion without finite and infinite spikes (without impacts in mechanical components), including the laws of synthesis of a polydyne cams. Numerous diagrams, comparative tables, and recommendations make it possible to make an appropriate choice of the output motion according to given conditions. Chapter 3 contains the theoretical foundations used to construct mathematical models for the synthesis of cam mechanisms. The theoretical apparatus used is based mainly on elements of kinematic and analytical geometry, which enables an adequate, visual graphical and mathematical interpretation of the synthesis, which, without the help of differential geometry, fully reveals the geometry of the cam profiles, incl. their curvatures and involutes. Chapter 4 is devoted to the synthesis of mechanisms with a disk cam and a oscillating (roller or flat-face) or translating (roller or flat-face) follower. Synthesis involves the determination of basic geometric parameters and the profiling of single-disc and double-disc conjugate cams under specified kinematic or force conditions. Chapter 5 deals with the synthesis of mechanisms with a linear (translating) cam and a oscillating (roller or flat-face) or translating (roller or flat-face) follower. Synthesis involves the determination of basic geometric parameters and the profiling of linear cams under specified kinematic or force conditions. The book is intended for engineers, technicians, students, PhD students and professors from technical schools and universities.