Econometrics

Many of the test statistics which used to test $H:\theta=\theta_0$ are constructed under a postulated model. However, when the postulated model is not correct, the true significance level $\alpha^{'}$ will be different than the significance level of the postulated model $\alpha$. The significance level $\alpha$ is used in the test statistic whether or not the hypothesis is rejected or not rejected, so determining the true significance level is important in the hypothesis tests. In this paper, when the normality assumption in hypothesis tests is violated, the true significance level for testing hypothesis about the location $\mu$ and scale $\sigma$ parameters under different contaminated distributions is obtained. As a result, the robustness of significance levels  is investigated.

This study analyzes the volatility spillover effects in the US stock market (S&P500) and cryptocurrency market (BGCI) using intraday data during the COVID-19 pandemic. As the potential drivers of portfolio diversification, we measure the asymmetric volatility transmission on both markets. We apply MGARCH-BEKK and the algorithm-based GA2M machine learning model. The negative shocks to returns impact the S&P500 and the cryptocurrency market more than the positive shocks on both markets. This study also indicates evidence of unidirectional cross-market asymmetric volatility transmission from the cryptocurrency market to the S&P500 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research findings show the potential benefit of portfolio diversification between the S&P500 and BGCI.

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to validate the impact of economic and financial development along with energy consumption on environmental degradation using dynamic panel data models for the period 1980-2010. The study uses three sub-panels constructed on the basis of income level to make panel data analysis more meaningful. Design/methodology/approach – Larsson et al. panel cointegration technique, fully modified ordinary least squares and vector error correction model causality analysis are applied for empirical estimation. Findings – Main empirical findings demonstrate that financial development reduces environmental degradation in the high-income panel and increases environmental degradation in the middle- and low-income panels. Hypothesis of the environmental Kuznets curve is accepted in all income panels. Granger causality results show the evidence of bidirectional causality between financial development and CO2 emission in the high-income panel, and unidirectional cau...

Automated markets are becoming increasingly widespread, and their efficiency properties are of corresponding concern to regulators and exchange policy makers. Many systems are implemented in settings characterized by a distinct lack of liquidity, however, often by design. We evaluate the performance of such a market, the GLOBEX overnight trading system, in absolute terms and relative to a liquid benchmark, the floor market of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Our results with respect to bid-ask spreads and adverse selection suggest that the nature of the environment is an important determinant of market performance, but that an automated market can operate well in a relatively illiquid setting. Price clustering, indicative of a lack of pricing efficiency, is prevalent on the automated system, but price resolution improves as trading frequency increases.

An error correction model is derived from a stochastic dynamic programming problem incorporating rational expectations. A parametric restriction is derived that allows a test for the theoretical proposition that the optimal strategy behind the error correction from entails the failure to asymptotically close the gap between the choice variable and the growing target. This is accomplished by nesting a partial adjustment model with forward‐looking expectations within the error correction paradigm. The counterintuitive behaviour embodied in the error correction model is not supported by the data in the context of a cross‐country comparison of cash balances relationships.

This paper empirically investigates the nature of the underlying stochastic processes characterizing real oil prices using a Structural Time Series Model for the period 1960 to 2016. Based on the state space framework the STM decomposes the data into separate stochastic components by the maximum likelihood via the Kalman Filter. In contrast to the extant literature, this approach obviates the need to attain stationarity. Instead, it explicitly represents the nonstationarity properties of real oil prices through time varying structures and incorporation of structural breaks. The results establish that real oil prices are a composite of a long term trend, effect of shocks and short term fluctuations. The trend exhibits stochastic evolution and is punctuated by distinctive breaks triggered by unpredictable and significant events. Short term fluctuations are driven by transitory market influence and result in mean reverting patterns. Overall, the model captures, in a nonstructural frame...

Employing a unique panel of 691 private firms that accounted for 26% of total valueadded in manufacturing in Turkey, the paper explores the impacts of exchange rate volatility on employment growth during the period of 1983 -2005. The empirical analysis using a variety of specifications, estimation techniques, and robustness tests suggests that exchange rate volatility has a statistically and economically significant employment growth reducing effect on manufacturing firms. Using point estimates, the results suggest that for an average firm a one standard deviation increase in real exchange rate volatility reduces employment growth in the range of 1.4 -2.1 percentage points.

We provide a mathematical definition of fragility and antifragility as negative or positive sensitivity to a semi-measure of dispersion and volatility (a variant of negative or positive "vega") and examine the link to nonlinear effects. We integrate model error (and biases) into the fragile or antifragile context. Unlike risk, which is linked to psychological notions such as subjective preferences (hence cannot apply to a coffee cup) we offer a measure that is universal and concerns any object that has a probability distribution (whether such distribution is known or, critically, unknown). We propose a detection of fragility, robustness, and antifragility using a single "fast-and-frugal", model-free, probability free heuristic that also picks up exposure to model error. The heuristic lends itself to immediate implementation, and uncovers hidden risks related to company size, forecasting problems, and bank tail exposures (it explains the forecasting biases). While simple to implement, it outperforms stress testing and other such methods such as Value-at-Risk.

The positive and negative predictive values of a binary diagnostic test are measures of the clinical accuracy of the diagnostic test, which depend on the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test and the disease prevalence, and therefore they are two interdependent parameters. The comparisons of predictive values in paired designs do not consider the dependence between predictive values. A global hypothesis test has been studied in order to simultaneously compare the predictive values of two or more binary diagnostic tests when the binary tests and the gold standard are applied to all of the individuals in a random sample. This global hypothesis test is an asymptotic hypothesis test based on the chi-square distribution. Simulation experiments have been carried out in order to study the type I error and the power of the global hypothesis test when comparing the predictive values of two and three binary diagnostic tests, respectively. From the results of the simulation experiments, a method has been proposed to simultaneously compare the predictive values of two or more binary diagnostic tests. The results have been applied to the diagnosis of coronary disease.

We provide a mathematical definition of fragility and antifragility as negative or positive sensitivity to a semi-measure of dispersion and volatility (a variant of negative or positive "vega") and examine the link to nonlinear effects. We integrate model error (and biases) into the fragile or antifragile context. Unlike risk, which is linked to psychological notions such as subjective preferences (hence cannot apply to a coffee cup) we offer a measure that is universal and concerns any object that has a probability distribution (whether such distribution is known or, critically, unknown). We propose a detection of fragility, robustness, and antifragility using a single "fast-and-frugal", model-free, probability free heuristic that also picks up exposure to model error. The heuristic lends itself to immediate implementation, and uncovers hidden risks related to company size, forecasting problems, and bank tail exposures (it explains the forecasting biases). While simple to implement, it outperforms stress testing and other such methods such as Value-at-Risk.

We investigate the validity of the bootstrap method for the elementary random variables X 1 , ... ,Xn. For both fix~d and'incre~sing brder k, as n __, oo the cases where µ = EX 1 f= 0, the nondegenerate case, and where µ = EX 1 = 0, the degenerate case, are considered.

This paper examined size effect and its linkages to behavioral risk. It also studied the market under reaction and over reaction to information events across size wise portfolios in Indian market over the period spanning from 2004 to 2016. Statistical techniques such as correlation analysis, Regression analysis and Principle Component Analysis were applied in this study. The study observed significant presence of size effect in the portfolio returns which is not in line with the movement of market beta factor. The analysis revealed that behavioral risk factor of the portfolios being inversely related to market size, indicating that the size effect observed as the price for behavioral risk prevailing in the market. In the presence of high optimistic irrational sentiment, the correction in excess returns are higher in large cap portfolios compared to that in small and medium size portfolios and vice versa in case of high pessimistic irrational sentiment in the market even though the s...

The aim of this research is to identify the factors that influence the technical efficiency of total production costs in apple farms, addressing some of the complexities posed by small-scale farming, within the regional and national context. The data of the study were collected from 150 randomly selected apple farms in Korca district, one of the major apples growing regions in Albania. The methodology approach consists of an econometric modelling of the factors that affect farm efficiency, capitalizing on the utility of the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), as a tool for gauging the spectrum of technical efficiency levels exhibited by apple farms. The findings reveal the substantial impact exerted by various factors such as farm size, irrigation, the deployment of capital stock, and the quantity of pesticides and fertilizers upon the technical efficiency of the total production costs. Farmers involved in apple production can improve the efficiency level by improving the irrigation techniques, and optimizing the quantity of fertilizers and capital stock. Also, apple producers in Albania may overcome yield instabilities by extending the area planted with apples.

Ordered item response models that are in common use can be divided into three groups, cumulative, sequential and adjacent categories model. The derivation and motivation of the models is typically based on the assumed presence of latent traits or underlying process models. In the construction frequently binary models play an important role. The objective of this paper is to give motivations for the models and to clarify the role of the binary models for the various types of ordinal models. It is investigated which binary models are included in an ordinal model but also how the models can be constructed from a sequence of binary models. In all the models one finds a Guttman space structure, which has previously been investigated in particular for the partial credit model. The consideration of the binary models adds to the interpretation of model parameters, which is helpful, in particular, in the case of the partial credit model, for which interpretation is less straightforward than for the other models. A specific topic that is addressed is the ordering of thresholds in the partial credit model because for some researchers reversed ordering is an anomaly, others disagree. It is argued that the ordering of thresholds is not a constitutive element of the partial credit model.

Missing data is an important issue in almost all fields of quantitative research. A nonparametric procedure that has been shown to be useful is the nearest neighbor imputation method. We suggest a weighted nearest neighbor imputation method based on L q -distances. The weighted method is shown to have smaller imputation error than available NN estimates. In addition we consider weighted neighbor imputation methods that use selected distances. The careful selection of distances that carry information on the missing values yields an imputation tool that outperforms competing nearest neighbor methods distinctly. Simulation studies show that the suggested weighted imputation with selection of distances provides the smallest imputation error, in particular when the number of predictors is large. In addition, the selected procedure is applied to real data from different fields.

Motivated by recent work studying massive imaging data in the neuroimaging literature, we propose multivariate varying coefficient models (MVCM) for modeling the relation between multiple functional responses and a set of covariates. We develop several statistical inference procedures for MVCM and systematically study their theoretical properties. We first establish the weak convergence of the local linear estimate of coefficient functions, as well as its asymptotic bias and variance, and then we derive asymptotic bias and mean integrated squared error of smoothed individual functions and their uniform convergence rate. We establish the uniform convergence rate of the estimated covariance function of the individual functions and its associated eigenvalue and eigenfunctions. We propose a global test for linear hypotheses of varying coefficient functions, and derive its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis. We also propose a simultaneous confidence band for each individual effect curve. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures. We apply MVCM to investigate the development of white matter diffusivities along the genu tract of the corpus callosum in a clinical study of neurodevelopment.

Different voters behave differently, different governments make different decisions, or different organizations are ruled differently. Many research questions important to political scientists concern choice behavior, which involves dealing with nominal-scale dependent variables. Drawing on the principle of maximum random utility, we propose a flexible and general heterogeneous multinomial logit model for studying differences in choice behavior. The model systematically accounts for heterogeneity that is not captured by classical models, indicates the strength of heterogeneity, and permits examining which explanatory variables cause heterogeneity. As the proposed approach allows incorporating theoretical expectations about heterogeneity into the analysis of nominal dependent variables, it can be applied to a wide range of research problems. Our empirical example uses data on multiparty elections to demonstrate the benefits of the model in the study of heterogeneity in spatial voting.

The objective of this study was to analyze the money demand function for Zambia for the period 1978 – 2018 using annual time series data. The study employed the Gregory Hansen cointegration technique. The study also employed Hendry’s General to Specific technique to estimate the error correction model by obtaining a parsimonious model. The results of the Gregory Hansen test confirmed the presence of a cointegrating relationship and selected the GH-2 model as the most plausible model with a level shift and a trend. The results also endogenously determined 1994 as the break year in the money demand function. Other interesting results obtained by the study suggest that inflation and interest rate are the robust determinants of real money demand both in the short and long run. Furthermore, unlike many other developing countries, the results show that money is a necessity in Zambia. The other interesting results suggested by the study are that the financial sector reforms of 1994 diminis...

In this paper we describe a procedure for disaggregating agricultural land use choices at NUTS 2 level to about 18.000 homogeneous spatial units completely covering the usable agricultural area of the EU. The disaggregation procedure uses 40.000 sampling points and aggregate data from administrative regions and requires two steps: First, we employ crop specific, spatial binary choice models to regress land use decisions on local natural conditions (soil, relief, climate) based on the sample information. Results allow predicting crop shares in each spatial unit. Second, consistency with data from administrative regions is achieved by maximising the posterior density of crop shares subject to aggregating equations using the forecast distributions as prior information. Comparison with actual crop shares shows the validity of the procedure.

Based on Easton & Harris model (1991), this study aims to investigate the relationship between accounting information reported in financial statements and stock returns. We collected the sample of 108 listed firms on the Ho Chi Minh stock market - the most developmental economic zone in Vietnam during the period of 4 years, from 2010 to 2013. In order to examine the relationship, this paper principally used quantity approach and data estimation techniques of Pooled Regression Model, Fixed Effects Model (FEM) and Random Effects Model (REM). We then utilized the Hausman Test to choose an appropriate model between FEM and REM. The results indicate that there is an association between accounting information and stock returns in Vietnam, but this association is considerably weak. It implies that the accounting information is less useful to make investment decisions in the Vietnamese stock market.

Dividend is an unresolved puzzle in corporate finance and present study attempted to resolve this puzzle by testing the impact of industry, firm, and firm year on dividend policy. The study applied the variance decomposition technique in order to investigate the variance in dividend payout ratios at firm year, firm, and industry level. Study used conveniently sampled data of 57 non-financial firms from 2005 to 2017. The study revealed that at firm and firm year level dividend payout ratios are varied significantly in Pakistan. However, the study found insignificant variation at industry level (measuring by dividend to cash flow and sale ratios) in dividend payout ratios. The study provides important evidence to the stakeholders about the relation of dividend policy and firm year, industry, and firm. The investors and managements need to consider the impact of firm year on dividend policy while formulating dividend policy of the Pakistani firms. Furthermore, the study adds significant contribution to the existing literature by clarifying the three important determinants of dividend policy with respect to their contribution in Pakistan.

Dividend is an unresolved puzzle in corporate finance and present study attempted to resolve this puzzle by testing the impact of industry, firm, and firm year on dividend policy. The study applied the variance decomposition technique in order to investigate the variance in dividend payout ratios at firm year, firm, and industry level. Study used conveniently sampled data of 57 non-financial firms from 2005 to 2017. The study revealed that at firm and firm year level dividend payout ratios are varied significantly in Pakistan. However, the study found insignificant variation at industry level (measuring by dividend to cash flow and sale ratios) in dividend payout ratios. The study provides important evidence to the stakeholders about the relation of dividend policy and firm year, industry, and firm. The investors and managements need to consider the impact of firm year on dividend policy while formulating dividend policy of the Pakistani firms. Furthermore, the study adds significant contribution to the existing literature by clarifying the three important determinants of dividend policy with respect to their contribution in Pakistan.

In an evaluation of prison-based residential drug treatment programs, the authors use three different regression-based approaches to estimating treatment effects. Two of the approaches, the instrumental variable and the Heckman approach, attempt to minimize selection bias as an explanation for treatment outcomes. Estimates from these approaches are compared with estimates from a regression in which treatment is represented by a dummy variable. The article discusses the advantage of using more than one method to increase confidence in findings when possible selection bias is a concern. Three-year outcome data for 2,315 federal inmates are used in analyses where the authors separately examine criminal recidivism and relapse to drug use for men and women. Statistical tests lead the authors to conclude that treatment reduces criminal recidivism and relapse to drug use. The treatment effect was largest when the inference was based on the Heckman approach, somewhat smaller when based on t...

This paper aims at reconciling two apparently contradictory empirical regularities of financial returns, namely the fact that the empirical distribution of returns tends to normality as the frequency of observation decreases (aggregational Gaussianity) combined with the fact that the conditional variance of high frequency returns seems to have a unit root, in which case the unconditional variance is infinite. We show that aggregational Gaussianity and infinite variance can coexist, provided that all the moments of the unconditional distribution whose order is less than two exist. The latter characterises the case of Integrated GARCH (IGARCH) processes. Finally, we discuss testing for aggregational Gaussianity under barely infinite variance.

Evaluating investments with long-term consequences using discount rates that decline with the time horizon, (Declining Discount Rates or DDRs) means that future welfare changes are of greater consequence in present value terms. Recent work in this area has turned towards operationalising the theory and establishing a schedule of DDRs for use in cost benefit analysis. Using US data we make the following points concerning this transition: i) model selection has important implications for operationalising a theory of DDRs that depends upon uncertainty; ii) misspecification testing naturally leads to employing models that account for changes in the interest rate generating mechanism. Lastly, we provide an analysis of the policy implications of DDRs in the context of climate change for the US and show that the use of a state space model can increase valuations by 150% compared to conventional constant discounting.

This paper aims at reconciling two apparently contradictory empirical regularities of financial returns, namely the fact that the empirical distribution of returns tends to normality as the frequency of observation decreases (aggregational Gaussianity) combined with the fact that the conditional variance of high frequency returns seems to have a unit root, in which case the unconditional variance is infinite. We show that aggregational Gaussianity and infinite variance can coexist, provided that all the moments of the unconditional distribution whose order is less than two exist. The latter characterises the case of Integrated GARCH (IGARCH) processes. Finally, we discuss testing for aggregational Gaussianity under barely infinite variance.

Based on the theory of multiple statistical hypothesis testing, we elaborate simultaneous statistical inference methods in dynamic factor models. In particular, we employ structural properties of multivariate chi-squared distributions in order to construct critical regions for vectors of likelihood ratio statistics in such models. In this, we make use of the asymptotic distribution of the vector of test statistics for large sample sizes, assuming that the model is identified and model restrictions are testable. Examples of important multiple test problems in dynamic factor models demonstrate the relevance of the proposed methods for practical applications.

Based on the theory of multiple statistical hypothesis testing, we elaborate simultaneous statistical inference methods in dynamic factor models. In particular, we employ structural properties of multivariate chi-squared distributions in order to construct critical regions for vectors of likelihood ratio statistics in such models. In this, we make use of the asymptotic distribution of the vector of test statistics for large sample sizes, assuming that the model is identified and model restrictions are testable. Examples of important multiple test problems in dynamic factor models demonstrate the relevance of the proposed methods for practical applications.

In this paper we introduce and investigate a new rejection curve for asymptotic control of the false discovery rate (FDR) in multiple hypotheses testing problems. We first give a heuristic motivation for this new curve and propose some procedures related to it. Then we introduce a set of possible assumptions and give a unifying short proof of FDR control for procedures based on Simes' critical values, whereby certain types of dependency are allowed. This methodology of proof is then applied to other fixed rejection curves including the proposed new curve. Among others, we investigate the problem of finding least favorable parameter configurations such that the FDR becomes largest. We then derive a series of results concerning asymptotic FDR control for procedures based on the new curve and discuss several example procedures in more detail. A main result will be an asymptotic optimality statement for various procedures based on the new curve in the class of fixed rejection curves. Finally, we briefly discuss strict FDR control for a finite number of hypotheses.

Some effort has been undertaken over the last decade to provide conditions for the control of the false discovery rate by the linear step-up procedure (LSU) for testing n hypotheses when test statistics are dependent. In this paper we investigate the expected error rate (EER) and the false discovery rate (FDR) in some extreme parameter configurations when n tends to infinity for test statistics being exchangeable under null hypotheses. All results are derived in terms of p-values. In a general setup we present a series of results concerning the interrelation of Simes' rejection curve and the (limiting) empirical distribution function of the p-values. Main objects under investigation are largest (limiting) crossing points between these functions, which play a key role in deriving explicit formulas for EER and FDR. As specific examples we investigate equi-correlated normal and t-variables in more detail and compute the limiting EER and FDR theoretically and numerically. A surprising limit behavior occurs if these models tend to independence. Control of the false discovery rate (FDR) in multiple hypotheses testing has become an attractive approach especially if a large number of hypotheses is at hand. The first FDR controlling procedure, a linear step-up procedure (LSU), was originally designed for independent p-values (cf. ) and has its origins in [3] (cf. also ). Meanwhile, it is known that the LSU-procedure controls the FDR even if the test statistics obey some special dependence structure. Key words are MTP 2 (multivariate total positivity of order 2) and PRDS (positive regression dependency on subsets). More formal descriptions of these conditions and proofs can be found in [2] and [13]. In view of testing problems with some ten thousand hypotheses as they appear, for example, in genetics, asymptotic considerations become more and more popular. The first asymptotic investigations concerning expected type I errors of the LSU-procedure, as well as for the corresponding linear step-down (LSD) procedure for the independent case, can be found in [7] and [8]. A first theoretical comparison of classical stepwise procedures controlling a multiple level α [or familywise error rate (FWER) in the strong

This very rare book of its kind & highly valuable s a detailed study of biblical commerce and its eschatological significance. Published in 1920 by Longmans, Green & Co., the work explores the commercial power of ancient Tyre as a metaphor for imperial rise and fall. Schoff’s analysis is rooted in scriptural exegesis, particularly the prophetic warnings of Isaiah, Ezekiel, and the Book of Revelation, which depict Tyre as emblematic of economic excess, moral corruption, and divine judgment. At its core, The Ship "Tyre" investigates the interplay between economic power and divine retribution in ancient civilizations. The study extends beyond Tyre itself to encompass the fates of Nineveh, Babylon, and Rome—empires that, like Tyre, fell from greatness due to their hubris and spiritu
l decline. Schoff’s research integrates historical, theological, and commercial perspectives, making this work significant for biblical scholars, historians of the ancient Near East, and those studying the intersection of commerce and prophecy in religious texts.
Summary of Chapters
1. The Tabernacle
This chapter discusses the economic and material aspects of the construction of the Israelite Tabernacle, including the resources and trade networks that supplied its precious materials. It establishes the biblical framework for understanding commerce in relation to divine worship.
2. Division of Spoil
Examines how war spoils contributed to the wealth of ancient civilizations, particularly through conquest and plunder. This section highlights the biblical theme of divine justice in redistributing wealth after military victories.
3. The Temple and Palace
Analyzes the opulence of the Temple of Solomon and royal palaces, demonstrating how sacred and secular wealth were interconnected. This chapter reflects on the tensions between material prosperity and spiritual fidelity.
4. Ophir Voyages
Explores the legendary voyages to Ophir, known for its abundant gold and luxury goods. This chapter investigates the ancient maritime trade routes and their significance in biblical history.
5. Profanation and Pillage
Describes how foreign powers desecrated sacred sites, including the destruction of temples and looting of religious treasures. It ties into the broader theme of divine punishment for hubris and moral corruption.
6. Captivity
Focuses on the exile and captivity of Israelite populations, linking economic devastation to divine retribution. The Babylonian exile is a key focus, illustrating how economic decline often followed spiritual failure.
7. The Ship "Tyre"
The central allegory of the book, this chapter interprets Ezekiel’s lament over Tyre (Ezekiel 27), presenting the city’s vast commercial network as a doomed vessel. The imagery of a shipwreck symbolizes the fragility of material wealth.
8. The Prince of Tyre
Examines the figure of the "Prince of Tyre" in Ezekiel 28 as a representation of human arrogance and self-deification. This chapter explores how rulers who exalt themselves as divine are ultimately brought low.
9. The King of Tyre
Further explores the downfall of Tyre’s monarchy, drawing connections between the city's decline and broader historical patterns of imperial collapse.
10. Notes to the Allegory
Provides exegetical commentary on the prophetic allegory of Tyre, comparing biblical metaphors with historical events.
11. The Second Temple
Analyzes the economic and religious implications of the rebuilding of the Jewish Temple after the Babylonian exile, contrasting it with the former grandeur of Solomon’s Temple.
12. The Great City "Babylon"
Examines Babylon’s role in biblical prophecy as a symbol of imperial corruption and its eventual downfall, drawing parallels with Tyre.
13. The Holy City
Contrasts the fate of corrupt empires with the enduring holiness of Jerusalem, viewed as the divine counterpoint to Babylon.
14. The Pomp and the Trappings
Discusses the materialistic excesses of empires, illustrating how wealth and luxury often precede moral and political decline.
15. Precious Stones
Explores the symbolism of precious stones in biblical and historical contexts, particularly in relation to divine judgment and heavenly rewards.
16. The Specifications Compared
Compares the economic and architectural grandeur of different ancient civilizations, using biblical and historical sources.
17. Date of the Tradition
Investigates the historical development of the tradition surrounding Tyre’s fall and its prophetic significance across different time periods.
Appendices and Abbreviations
The book concludes with additional notes, sources, and a list of abbreviations used in the text.
Conclusion
Schoff’s The Ship "Tyre" offers a profound examination of the cyclical nature of economic power and divine justice. By drawing from biblical prophecy and historical case studies, the work underscores a universal theme: civilizations that prioritize wealth and pride over moral and spiritual integrity are destined to fall. The book remains a valuable resource for scholars interested in biblical commerce, eschatology, and the historical interplay between trade and theology.
Tags
Biblical prophecy, ancient commerce, Tyre, Ezekiel 27, Isaiah, Book of Revelation, Nineveh, Babylon, Rome, downfall of empires, allegory, maritime trade, biblical exegesis, economic history, theology, divine judgment, conquest, war spoils, sacred temples, Solomon’s Temple, Ophir voyages, luxury goods, prophetic literature, biblical metaphors, eschatology, theological history, trade routes, divine retribution, historical allegory, moral corruption, imperial collapse, commerce in the Bible, biblical symbolism, ancient Near East, maritime symbolism, ancient shipping, prophecy fulfillment, sacred texts, spiritual decline, biblical judgment, fall of civilizations, wealth and pride, biblical interpretation, economic collapse, trade in antiquity, ancient cities, seafaring nations, biblical trade, theological analysis, prophetic warnings, sacred geography, temple construction, historical theology, Middle Eastern history, conquest narratives, commercial power, biblical themes, Jewish history, ancient merchants, prophecy and history, destruction of empires, luxury and decay, theological prophecy, divine warnings, biblical history, Ezekiel’s lament, prophetic discourse, fall of Tyre, prince of Tyre, king of Tyre, economic downfall, sacred and secular wealth, merchant class, allegorical prophecy, downfall of kings, biblical political economy, sacred economy, religious downfall, theological metaphors, economic prosperity and ruin, prophetic imagery, ships in the Bible, fall of great cities, divine intervention, scriptural commerce, theological historiography, trade and prophecy, riches and ruin, spiritual downfall, ancient economic systems, historical eschatology, sacred texts analysis, commercial allegory, maritime metaphors, ancient seafaring, moral decline in history, temple pillage, wealth and idolatry, biblical archaeology, spiritual hubris, historical interpretations of scripture, prophetic commerce, temple economy, conquest and exile, downfall of trade empires, moral decay and wealth, trade in ancient Israel, downfall of world powers, biblical cities, theological critique, ancient world economy, prophetic history, divine punishment, merchants in antiquity, wealth accumulation, downfall of commercial cities, trade and divinity, destruction of wealth, biblical allegories, downfall narratives, theological reflections, temple riches, biblical commerce, biblical historiography, ancient economy, religious arrogance, sacred relics, economic prophecy, downfall of trade networks, esoteric theology, Babylonian commerce, divine justice in trade, theological warnings, maritime trade and prophecy, Solomon’s wealth, Tyre’s destruction, merchant kings, prophetic warnings in history, ancient economies and theology, biblical wealth, fall of merchants, biblical maritime culture, prophetic judgment, sacred economic history, theology of commerce, sacred city narratives, merchant kings and prophets, sacred versus profane wealth, Tyre’s legacy, biblical warnings against wealth, ancient empire collapse, prophetic economics, Middle Eastern trade, biblical maritime history, prophetic symbols in trade, historical allegories of downfall, biblical imperial critique, eschatological economics, ancient wealth distribution, prophetic visions of destruction, wealth and divine wrath, downfall of trading nations, biblical critique of materialism, destruction of economic power, biblical rulers, allegorical trade history, sacred versus worldly power, maritime conquest, fall of trade monopolies, biblical city destruction, divine critique of wealth, rise and fall of maritime powers, the great harlot, merchants of the earth, destruction of Babylon, theological commentary, the ship of wealth, divine response to arrogance, Old Testament trade, prophetic calls to repentance, prophetic denunciations of wealth, the ship as empire, scriptural analysis of trade, temple economies in history, divine economics, maritime wealth and its perils, downfall of trading hubs, biblical critiques of empire, prophetic history of trade, theological significance of ships, ships in prophetic vision, trading nations in the Bible, Old Testament commerce, economic allegories in scripture, fall of ancient wealth, temple riches and trade, biblical economics, prophetic lessons in trade, downfall of the proud, hubris and empire collapse, sacred economics, maritime supremacy in history, economic warnings in prophecy, fall of seafaring empires, divine justice and trade, religious criticism of wealth, theological perspectives on commerce, scriptural warnings against greed, downfall of imperial traders, allegorical wealth, biblical rulers and wealth, downfall of kings and merchants, maritime power and its limits, prophetic justice, divine retribution against wealth, the sins of Tyre, prophetic condemnations of luxury, downfall of trade-driven cities, esoter...

We consider a Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) trading algorithm in which instead of following the static curve passively, the algo may adjust its participation rate in each interval. We propose a framework in which the adjustment only makes use of the expected value of the price appreciation, captured by trading signals. In order to avoid extreme behaviors, we bound the adaptive trading curve within a so-called trading envelope. Using two examples of signals, the Forward/Backward and a CAC40 stock, we confirm the potential improvement of our adaptive framework compared to previous ones.

Investments such as venture capital, buyouts, distressed debt or assimilated, have the peculiarity of being difficult to value due to their illiquid nature on the market. The lack of transparency is determined by the market value being either determined infrequently or estimated through an "appraisal" process. Both methods of evaluation lead to the "smoothing" of returns, implying that the reported performance metrics are biased: in particular, the estimated volatility is lower than the true volatility of the investment. We propose and test two multi-index methods to evaluate performance of mezzanine, distressed debt and hedge funds, aiming at overcoming the existing gaps in the current traditional portfolio analysis. The proposed models are able to capture non-linear market effects -asset class exposure and style factor model -with the advantage of remaining in the simple framework of the linear regression analysis. We discuss the results obtained and compare them with the outcomes of a traditional regression analysis. The paper is organized as follows: section 1 provides additional arguments to support the current methodology; section 2 presents the two types of methods used in the analysis and introduces the extensions to these models to incorporate market-lagged effects; section 3 describes the data used for the analysis, namely series of returns for three funds: mezzanine, distressed debt, and hedge fund; section 4 provides interpretation and comparisons of the results obtained when using different specifications of the first method based on the asset class exposure models whereas section 5 discusses the results obtained from different specifications of the style factor model. Finally, section 6 summarizes the main achievements.

This study uses the fully modify ordinary least square (FMOLS) and the dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) to examineexport-led growth hypothesis in West African countries over the period 1980 to 2018. To achieve the objective of the study, panel data on Real Gross domestic product (RGDP), Exchange rate (REXR), net exports (NXPT, labor (LABR)and investment (INVS)) were collected for seventeen West African countries from database of the international financial statistics (IFS) and World Development Index (WDI). The data were analyzed using dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and fully modify ordinary least square (FMOLS). Findings from the study show that exports had significant impact on economic growth of the West African countries investigated in this study. Based on the findings, it is recommended, among other things, that the governments of West African countries should continue with export-led economic growth since there is strong empirical evidence in support of the export-l...

This article quantifies the size of the implicit bid-ask spread and examines the impact of three structural changes on the relationship between the bid-ask spread and its determi-Ž . nants on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange JSE . A sample of 135 firms was analyzed using a time series over the period from January 1991 to February 1996. It was found that the size Ž of the spread is substantially larger on the JSE and that the independent variables price, . volatility and trading volume explain a smaller proportion of variation in the spread than on developed exchanges. The evidence shows that the spread decreased after tax structural change, but increased after both political and economic structural changes. The size of the spread decreased on average from 1.71% to 1.24% following tax structural change and increased from 1.67% to 1.83% and from 1.10% to 1.24% following political and economic structural changes, respectively. The evidence also shows that the impact of tax, political and economic structural changes on the relationship between the spread and its determinants is not statistically significant. The results show that while the independent variables explain from 23.45 to 48.2% of the variation in the spread, there is no statistically significant change in the coefficients of the independent variables between before and after structural change regressions.

This study employs a stochastic frontier technique to estimate managerial efficiency levels in the hotel industry. The only prior efficiency study in this sector employed a linear-programming technique termed data envelopment analysis (DEA). That study found the hotel industry to be operating at a 89% efficiency level. The stochastic frontier approach overcomes many of the potential statistical limitations of DEA and allows for additional insights on efficiency in the hotel market. The average efficiency measures for the hotel industry estimated by the stochastic frontier approach are high and consistent with the results obtained using DEA. In particular, average efficiency was estimated at 89.4%, with the most and least efficient hotels operating at a 92.1% and a 84.3% efficiency level, respectively.

This article quantifies the size of the implicit bid-ask spread and examines the impact of three structural changes on the relationship between the bid-ask spread and its determi-Ž . nants on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange JSE . A sample of 135 firms was analyzed using a time series over the period from January 1991 to February 1996. It was found that the size Ž of the spread is substantially larger on the JSE and that the independent variables price, . volatility and trading volume explain a smaller proportion of variation in the spread than on developed exchanges. The evidence shows that the spread decreased after tax structural change, but increased after both political and economic structural changes. The size of the spread decreased on average from 1.71% to 1.24% following tax structural change and increased from 1.67% to 1.83% and from 1.10% to 1.24% following political and economic structural changes, respectively. The evidence also shows that the impact of tax, political and economic structural changes on the relationship between the spread and its determinants is not statistically significant. The results show that while the independent variables explain from 23.45 to 48.2% of the variation in the spread, there is no statistically significant change in the coefficients of the independent variables between before and after structural change regressions.

This study evaluates whether exchange traded funds (ETFs) threaten financial market stability by testing two hypotheses relating the growing importance of ETFs to increased market volatility and rising equity valuations. We estimate quantile cointegration models using Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) and Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility Index (VIX) data for 1994-2020. We found that an increase in ETFs is positively and significantly related to the long-term valuation of the S&P 500 for quantile values above the median. By contrast, ETFs have only a negative and significant effect on the VIX for quantiles around the median. Ultimately, two novel results were obtained. First, the distortion in the value of the S&P 500 relative to its fundamentals is driven by investor flow into ETFs during a bull market. Second, the impact of equity ETFs on the VIX is only affected when fundamental factors are in play, decreasing it. Therefore, ETFs contribute to forming equity bubbles and support valuation market dynamics. Both regulators and policymakers should consider these conclusions.

The need to deal with variability in wind power output is one of the greatest challenges connected with adopting a considerable amount of wind power into power grids. Power system operators need to acquire more information on this variability, which can be utilized in the mitigation of high ramping events, especially when these events synchronize with a large error in the prediction, ensuring flexibility and reliability in the power system besides the economic considerations. The paper analyses short-term variability in output power using actual data obtained from aggregated wind farms from 2015 to 2020, where power ramping characteristics are described using a variety of measurements. The use of the standard deviation of short-term wind power variation as a reserve measure will be investigated in detail since there is no consensus about the ideal confidence level value as a multiplier of σ, which ranges from 3 to 6 times σ. The paper addresses how large this confidence level should be, as well as developing a data-driven approach for estimating this reserve with increasing wind shares and evaluating the proper distribution of short-term wind variation. The results illustrate that the stochastic variations in wind power can retain many of their characteristics from year to year, even when the share of wind capacity is raised.

In this article, an Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model has been developed with unreliable supply, where each received lot may have random fraction of defective items with known distribution. Thus, the inspection of lot becomes essential in almost all the situations. Moreover, its role becomes more significant when the items are deteriorating in nature. It is assumed that defective items are salvaged as a single batch after the screening process. Further, it has been observed that the demand as well as price for certain consumer items increases linearly with time, especially under inflationary conditions. Owing to this fact, this article investigates the impact of defective items on retailer's ordering policy for deteriorating items under inflation when both demand and price vary with the passage of time. The proposed model optimises the order quantity by maximising the retailer's expected profit. Results are demonstrated with the help of a numerical example and the sensitivity analysis is also presented to provide managerial insights into practice.

Environmental regulatory instruments are key to achieving synergy between high-quality economic development and ecological civilization construction. This paper measures the green overall factor productivity of the forestry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt by using the super-efficient nonexpected output SBM-ML index model. Additionally, it investigates the environmental regulation’s impact on forestry’s overall green factor productivity by using the conventional panel regression and panel smooth transformation model. The model was based on the relevant data obtained from eleven provinces along the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China from 2006 to 2021. This study concludes that command-and-control regulation of the environment and public engagement with environmental regulation can significantly promote the forestry green overall factor productivity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the environmental regulation’s effects on the forestry green overall efficiency in the econom...

This research aims to analyze the effect of women's income on poverty levels. Using panel data from city districts in Riau province during the 2011-2022 period, the analysis model used is panel regression with a fixed effect approach. This research reveals that women's income contributions to the family can significantly reduce poverty levels. The greater the contribution of women's income to total family income, the lower the poverty level. On the other hand, a decrease in women's income contribution results in an increase in poverty levels. These findings have implications that regional government efforts to reduce poverty levels in Riau province can be carried out through policy interventions related to increasing women's income, especially married women. Therefore, increasing women's participation in income-generating programs can be one of the strategic policies that should be considered in efforts to reduce the poverty rate.