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Reevaluating the Role of Family History in Predicting Disease Risk

Abstract

The use of family history as a predictive tool in medicine is widely accepted, yet its significance is overstated for non-genetic diseases. While a small percentage of diseases are caused by inheritable genetic mutations, the vast majority—estimated at 90–95%—are driven by lifestyle and environmental factors. This article critically examines the assumption that familial disease history indicates individual risk, arguing that cultural, environmental, and technological changes across generations render many such comparisons misleading and inaccurate. It highlights how inherited behaviors, such as diet or clothing habits, may masquerade as genetic inheritance. The role of negative expectation and belief in shaping health outcomes is also considered, as fear induced by medical predictions and testing for familial diseases can itself be detrimental. The article questions the commercial motivations that often accompany tests and the resulting preventive treatments, which can last a lifetime. Ultimately, it calls for a shift away from genetic fatalism and toward individual agency, cultural context, and personal responsibility in health.