Fiscal disaster risk assessment options for consideration : Pakistan

2013

Please provide an overview of the literature on Community-Based Disaster Risk Management in Pakistan, with a focus on impact. Identify successes and failures (including with regard to social inclusion), and key factors of success and failure. Where possible, consider variation among provinces, engagement with local and district government, and the types and methodologies of interventions supported, including links with environmental management.

Pakistan is a hazard-prone country with more and more people living in high-risk areas. Increasingly, holistic approaches consider landscapes across all hazards. In extreme situations the net result of natural and man-made hazards and the risks they pose cumulatively across a given area may be called a hazardscape. The approach introduced here reflects interactions among nature, society, and technology at several spatial scales. At present, a vast majority of all disaster risk management efforts undertaken in Pakistan concentrate on the response phase, although the mitigation of hazards is crucially essential to sustainable development. Pakistan has disaster management policies at national and regional levels. Efficient spatial planning tools are very limited although it is known that the particular multi-faceted nature of spatial planning requires a multi-risk approach which analyzes all relevant hazards as well as the vulnerability of the particular area. In this study several haz...

Disaster Risk Reduction, 2014

Please provide an overview of the literature on Community-Based Disaster Risk Management in Pakistan, with a focus on impact. Identify successes and failures (including with regard to social inclusion), and key factors of success and failure. Where possible, consider variation among provinces, engagement with local and district government, and the types and methodologies of interventions supported, including links with environmental management.

Pakistan's largest metropolis and economic hub, Karachi, surrounded by numerous tectonically active faults, is ill-equipped to cope with seismic hazards. The city is vulnerable mainly due to inadequate construction techniques, lack of awareness, political will and scant historical seismic data. The existing disaster management policies often remain ineffective or unimplemented due to technical or financial constraints, shortage of trained personnel and weak information-sharing mechanisms. This research identifies such challenges in Karachi and explores the global disaster risk reduction initiatives from better prepared countries, whose implementation feasibility is assessed based on local economic, social, topographical and political circumstances. Shortlisting five fundamental aspects of disaster risk reduction, a multi-prong strategy is devised, addressing Karachi's vulnerability and exposure to both urban communities and slums. An earthquake early warning system model using cell broadcast technology is formulated, proposing to supplement the existing upgradable seismic network in Pakistan. This and other priority measures constituting the proposed strategy present a customised pragmatic approach of shifting from an emergency response paradigm towards prevention, mitigation and preparedness.

2021

The role of institutions in determining the capacity of disaster resilience in communities,<br> settlements and regions is very important and influential in operationalizing the DRR strategies<br> deterministically. The domain of risk reduction frameworks in urban as well as rural settlements in<br> Pakistan have been focused very less in last few decades; so therefore establishing a Disaster Mitigation<br> Framework in context of either category of communities is categorically significant in a time frame<br> when Pakistan transits from agrarian economy to more Urban based and industrial state. For Pakistan<br> to achieve moderate to prolonged continuation of contemporary economic development, it must<br> resolve the threats raised by natural catastrophic events, particularly for agricultural / rural regions as 75<br> % of economy is driven through this sector in the country. Understanding the significance of disaster<br> mitigat...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a historical analysis of the disaster management structure, policies and institutions in Pakistan between 1947 and 2005, and highlights the contemporary challenges in view of the learning from the past. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a historic-integrative case study approach to disaster management and risk reduction policy, planning and practice. Qualitative data were collected through purposive sampling and a case study design was adopted. A broad range of actors was recruited as research participants. In total, 22 semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted in relation to this study in six different districts of Pakistan to achieve insight into the role of different institutions and stakeholders. Findings – Overall, the post-colonial flood-centric policy framework and fragmented responsibilities of different disaster management institutions show the lack of an effective institutional structure for disaster management and mitigation in Pakistan, particularly at the local level. Until the event of the 2005 earthquake, policies heavily relied on attaining immediate and short-term goals of response and relief while ignoring the long-term objectives of strategic planning for prevention and preparedness as well as capacity building and empowerment of local institutions and communities. Practical implications – The analysis explains, in part, why disaster planning and management needs to be given due attention in the developing countries at different policy scales (from local to national) especially in the face of limited resources, and what measures should be taken to improve effectiveness at different phases of the disaster management cycle. Originality/value – The paper advances the importance of a historical case study approach to disaster management and mitigation. The empirical work provides original research evidence about the approaches to dealing with disasters in Pakistan and thus enriches existing knowledge of disaster management policy and planning about the country.

2017

The following sections provide an overview of the natural hazards endemic to Pakistan and discuss the political history and socioeconomic conditions that make it challenging to tackle those natural hazards proactively. An assessment of Pakistan's institutional capacity for disaster response and disaster risk management is then provided with respect to the Hyogo Framework for Actions's five priorities for action. Each of the seven hypotheses are subsequently reviewed in light of the evidence from field interviews and other sources. The concluding section offers policy recommendations for improving disaster preparedness as well as ideas for further research.

The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures disaster country risk from a macroeconomic and financial perspective, according to possible future catastrophic events. The DDI captures the relationship between the demand for contingent resources to cover the maximum probable losses and the public sector's economic resilience; that is, the availability of internal and external funds for restoring affected inventories. For calculating potential losses, the model follows the insurance industry in establishing a probable loss, based on the critical impacts during a given period of exposure, and for the economic resilience the model computes the country's financial ability to cope with the situation taking into account: the insurance and reinsurance payments; the reserve funds for disasters; the funds that may be received as aid and donations; the possible value of new taxes; the margin for budgetary reallocations; the feasible value of external credit; and the internal credit the country may obtain. Access to these resources has limitations and costs that must be taken into account as feasible values according to the macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the model of DDI and the results for fourteen countries of the Americas to design appropriate risk evaluation tools to guide the governmental decision making.

Water

Natural hazards are dynamic and unpredictable events that are a continuous threat to global socio-economic development. Humans’ reactions to these catastrophes are influenced by their proximity to the hazards and their ability to anticipate, resist, cope with, and recover from their consequences. Due to climatic changes, the risk of multiple natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Pakistan. There is a pressing need to understand the spatial discrepancies of natural hazards due to climate change and identifying the regions that require special measures to increase resilience, achieve adaptation, and sustainable development goals. This paper synthesizes the related literature to understand spatial variations of natural hazards due to climate changes across Pakistan. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Landslide Catalog (NASA-GLC), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), and Pakistan Meteorological De...

Pakistan is vulnerable to natural hazards which mainly include earthquakes, floods and droughts. The country faces severe natural disaster in the last decade. Floods are the one happening frequently. This paper uses “2010 Floods” as a case study analysis to explore the overall scenario of pre and post disaster management of Pakistan. The method used in this paper is exploratory research approach. This research is qualitative base and all the data are collected from using secondary sources includes Umeå University Library online database, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) website and United Nations (UN) reports. The main problems highlighted in this report are as under, due to which the floods impacts were far higher than thoughts are as under.  Institutional in-capacities  Lack of information among vulnerable people  Environmental degradation  Poor land use planning  Poverty

disaster related mortality is a growing economic concern in the asian countries. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significant impact on per capita gross domestic Product (GdP) of the countries. The objective of the study is to empirically examine the impact of disaster related deaths on economic growth of Pakistan, by using ordinary least square method (OlS) during 1975 to 2009. The results reveal that there is a significant and positive impact of disaster related mortalities, human capital, gross investment and life expectancy on economic growth of Pakistan, while there is a negative impact of arable land, net exports and labor force on GdP per capita. The results imply that disaster significantly increase foreign aid which ultimately increases economic growth of Pakistan.

In Punjab, the continuous floods in the last six years especially in 2010 and 2014, due to climatic and non-climatic reasons, have exposed physical, socio-economic, and environmental vulnerabilities. The flood disaster management in Punjab is primarily focused on rescue, relief, and dependence of structural measures. The assessment of vulnerability is limited to district level (in form of mapping) which is incapable of identifying essential socio-economic drivers of vulnerability and local ability to cope and adapt. The mega flood of 2010 inflicted several changes in government structure and within communities. This research study assessed the vulnerability and capacity of flood affected communities as well as fluctuation in their vulnerability and capacity by analyzing planned and unplanned post flood responses. The study also determined the role of spatial planning in reducing flood vulnerabilities. To conduct the study, a vulnerability assessment framework was modified from sustainable livelihood and BBC framework. Qualitative and quantitative analysis and their triangulation were conducted to apprehend the pertaining issues. Interviews with officials of disaster management and spatial planning institutes were conducted to analyze changes after 2010 flood and government interventions. Participatory Rapid Appraisal (PRA) for two flood events (2010 and 2014) and household survey provided the vulnerability and capacity assessment of four flood affected communities in two severely affected districts (Jhang and Muzaffargarh) of Punjab. The results indicated that government interventions were limited to financial aid and early warning. These measures remained victim to political biasness, mismanagement, and lack of coordination and communication between departments. Other formal changes (legislation, policies, plans etc.) seemed to be less effective due to top-down approach, lack of technical man power; disaster management knowledge and financial constraints. Spatial planning appeared ineffective in mitigating flood risk as it was limited to urban areas and deficient incorporation of DRR measures in development plans. The results of PRA and household survey indicated that vulnerability of immovable assets increased or remained the same after 2014 flood disaster, but reduced significantly for moveable assets. Complex relationships existed within and between various dimensions of vulnerability that fluctuated vulnerability of related elements and factors. These relationships demonstrated that lack of physical infrastructure and awareness were the key drivers of vulnerability in Punjab.

International Journal of Finance & Management, 2022

In the current situation, Pakistan is not only suffering from a political crisis but also from a severe economic crisis. At present, Pakistan cannot bear the burden of any kind of minor crisis, whether it is social, political, economic, or any other type of crisis. At present, the external debt of Pakistan is $110b Billion & internal debt in Pakistan also touching the sky Public debt of Pakistan is around 54 Trillion PKR ($248.7Billion) which is 80.2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product. At present Pakistan is taking a package of $1 Billion from the IMF (International Monetary Fund), At the same time, floods start in the northern province of Pakistan KPK (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) area in Pakistan & causing irreparable damage to this province as well also spreading destruction through south Punjab Province & its adjacent area & also spread destruction in Provinces Sindh & Balochistan. According to a conservative estimate, the flood caused an economic loss of $30 billion in Pakistan's quarter of the country's external debt.

World Bank

This report is a component of the World Bank’s “Scaling up Innovation in Disaster Risk Management” (SI-DRM) program in Pakistan. The objective of this research is to develop an analytical framework for the evaluation of the program. This will enable to test the underlying assumption of the program design, namely that if decision-makers are provided with risk information and the necessary tools to effectively use this information, they will refine their behavioural and institutional structure accordingly. In line with this objective, this report present evidence of how governance and power relations shape disaster risk management policy making and how these process are mediated by Pakistan’s state fragility.