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Estimating changes in recreational fishing participation from national water quality policies

1991, Water Resources Research

Abstract

The complete evaluation of the offsite effects of national policies or programs that affect levels of agricultural nonpoint source pollution requires linking extensive water quality changes to changes in recreational activity. A sequential decision model is specified to describe an individual's decisions about fishing. A participation model for recreational fishing that includes a water quality index reflecting regional water quality is developed and estimated as a logit model with national level data. A visitation model for those who decide to fish that also includes the water quality index is estimated using ordinary least squares. The water quality index is found to be significant in the participation model but not in the visitation model. Together, the two models provide a means of estimating how changes in water quality might influence the number of recreation days devoted to fishing. The model is used to estimate changes in fishing participation for the Conservation Reserve Program. WATER QUALITY IMPACTS ON RECREATIONAL FISHING Benefits to water-based recreation are one aspect of the offsite benefits from national soil conservation programs or other agricultural programs or policies that reduce agricultural nonpoint source pollution. Studies have indicated that water pollution damages to recreation are substantial and that large benefits could result from improving water quality [Freeman, 1982; Heintz et al., 1976; Unger, 1975; Feenberg and Mills, 1980]. If reducing agricultural sources of pollution can substantially improve overall water quality, then sizable benefits in terms of improved recreational opportunities can be gained. In this paper a model for estimating recreational fishing benefits from a national agricultural conservation program is developed. A water quality index representing regional water quality is used to drive changes in demand for fishing. The resulting model was used to estimate changes in fishing participation brought about by the Conservation Reserve Program. Decisions about agricultural production at both the micro and macro levels can influence water quality. At the farm level, farmers can choose crop management, tillage, soil conservation, and chemical management techniques. Their choices affect the amounts of sediments and chemicals washing off the land and into water resources. Of interest here are the national policy decisions that can influence the production decisions of a large percentage of the nation's farmers. Policies include conservation policies but also price support and acreage reduction programs. Such programs or policies can have a substantial impact on national water quality by influencing acreage in production, intensity of production, and degree of conservation. Assessing the offsite water quality impacts of such national policies requires some way of linking water quality to This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. Published in 1991 by the American Geophysical Union. Paper number 91 WR00798. recreational behavior at the national level. A site-by-site approach would be extremely difficult, since national policies or programs influence water quality in many areas simultaneously. Also, the number of site studies required to analyze such changes would be prohibitively large. Even multisite or regional recreation visitation models such as those used by Sutherland [1982], Morey [1981], and Donnelly et aI. [!985] would be extremely cumbersome to use for a truly national policy analysis. Alternatively, a national model can be developed that does not rely on site data. The primary problem in estimating a national model is the availability of the necessary data.